五角大廈《中國軍力》新報告揭示了有關能力、背景和後果的內容 

作者/Author(s): Andrew Erickson 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 12/19/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、解放軍、五角大廈 


摘要：
五角大廈發表2024年度《中國軍力報告》，揭露解放軍的軍力建設與弱點。 

驚人的發展 
  • 中國的核武器庫自去年以來有所增加，擁有約400枚能夠打擊美國的洲際彈道導彈。而飛彈投送系統也與時俱進，包括彈道飛彈潛艦、核轟炸機、高超音速飛行器以及部分軌道轟炸系統。 
  • 中國還為其固體燃料洲際彈道飛彈建設了新的發射井區域，並擴大早期警示系統。 
  • 中國需要大量鈽來建設核技術。目前，俄羅斯向中國提供了濃縮武器級核燃料的技術，但中國堅稱該技術僅用於民用。 
  • 中國的核武擴張顯示其決心使用一切手段與美國競爭，在台灣問題上也一樣。 
  • 此外，中國正在發展反介入戰略及多領域精確作戰能力，從2023年以來圍繞台灣的多次實彈演習可見一斑。 
目標與力量投射  
  • 雖然台灣及其他有爭議的領土問題是中國軍事的重點，但北京政府的最終目標是建設一支能媲美美軍，甚至超越美軍的「世界一流」解放軍。 
  • 中國擁有全球第二高的軍事預算，以及規模最大的軍事力量以支持其行動。
  • 到2025年，解放軍的作戰艦艇數量可能高達400艘，這甚至不包含移交給中國海警的部分艦艇。 
  • 解放軍的本土技術水準幾乎已接近美國標準。 
樂觀與隱憂
  • 雖然中國的軍事成長令人緊張，但腐敗及內部競爭仍是軍事領導層的大麻煩。 
  • 習近平正在改革軍事結構，確保其能對頂尖對手執行高端戰爭。 
  • 報告也指出，習近平正面臨政治和組織風險，努力放大解放軍的能力，推進他的野心。 
 
Summary: 
The Pentagon published its 24th China Military Power Report, revealing the PLA's buildup and weaknesses. 
Startling Developments 
  • China's nuclear weapons stockpile has increased since last year, with around 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles that could reach the US. The increase was accompanied by improvement and growth in missile delivery systems, including ballistic missile submarines, nuclear bombers, hypersonic glide vehicles, and fractional orbital bombardment systems. 
  • China also developed new silo fields for its solid-propellant intercontinental ballistic missiles and expanded its early warning systems.  
  • China requires abundant plutonium to build its nuclear capabilities. Currently, Russia provided China with the technology to enrich weapons-grade nuclear fuel, but China insisted the technology was for civilian uses. 
  • China's nuclear buildup indicates its determination to use all means available to compete with or even fight the US, especially in a Taiwan contingency. 
  • China is also developing a counter-intervention strategy and multi-domain precision warfare operations, evidenced by its repeated fire drills around Taiwan since 2023. 
Aims and Power Projection 
  • Although Taiwan and other disputed territorial claims are China's military focus, the Beijing government's ultimate aim is a "world-class" PLA equal or superior to the US military. 
  • China has the second-highest military budget and the largest military force to cover its operations. 
  • The number of PLA combat vessels could reach 400 by 2025, not including some ships transferred to the Chinese Coast Guard. 
  • The PLA's indigenous technological sophistication almost reached US standards. 
Optimism and Pessimism 
  • Although China's military growth is alarming, corruption and competition within the hierarchy still plague the military leadership.  
  • Xi Jinping is reforming its military structure to ensure it can execute high-end warfare against top opponents. 
  • The report also indicated Xi is accepting political and organizational risks to maximize the PLA's capabilities and advance his ambitions. 
 
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