真實侵台事件的歷史分析

作者/Author(s): Scott Savitz 

網站來源/Source: RAND Corporation 

日期/Date: 12/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦、台灣、歷史 


摘要：
地緣政治分析家正在思考如何阻止北京成功併吞台灣。1884-85年中法戰爭中的台灣戰場，或許能提供一些啟示。
  • 當時，法國試圖利用台灣作為談判籌碼，以在越南取得更多利益。 
  • 雖然當時法國的軍力優於中國，但法國只佔領了基隆周邊地區。
  • 當時清朝指揮官採用了幾種策略，成功拖延法軍前進，並將法軍困在基隆一帶： 
  1. 破壞基隆的煤礦基礎設施及煤炭庫存，不讓法軍取得這些資源。 
  2. 阻斷淡水河的水路交通、實施游擊戰，並積極佈置水雷，阻止法國從淡水河進軍。 
  • 雖然法軍海軍對台灣實施封鎖，但中國商人利用海上封鎖的弱點，透過夜間航行及其他漏洞穿越封鎖，成功為作戰部隊運送補給。 
  • 清軍在基隆一帶與法軍多次交戰，但大多呈現膠著。法軍因疫病損失嚴重，只能固守基隆與澎湖群島，直到清朝割讓越南給法國。 
  • 對現今局勢的啟示： 
  1. 佈設海上水雷或在關鍵水道設置堅固障礙物，能有效阻礙對台侵略行動。 
  2. 澎湖是封鎖台灣及進攻的關鍵基地，因此台灣必須在澎湖部署足夠兵力，防止解放軍向本島推進。 
  3. 封鎖不是萬能的。台灣可以部署各種誘餌、干擾手段和電子干擾措施，使解放軍艦機陷入混亂，藉此突破封鎖。 
  4. 台灣的周遭環境有利於防禦，可有效阻止入侵者。 
  5. 中國在擁有足夠的指揮、管制、通信、電腦、情報、監視、偵察，以及熟悉台灣地形之前，中國不會輕易發動入侵。 
Summary: 
Geopolitical analysts are figuring out how to deter Beijing from successfully annexing Taiwan. The Taiwan episode of the 1884-85 Sino-French War may provide some insights. 
  • France attempted to use Taiwan as a bargaining chip against the Chinese during the war, enabling it to gain more ground in Vietnam. 
  • Although France's military was superior to China's, it only seized Keelung and nearby areas.  
  • The Chinese commander used several tactics to stall the French from advancing and keep the French within Keelung: 
  1. Sabotaged Keelung's coal mining infrastructure and inventories to prevent the French from using these resources. 
  2. Halted France's advance from the Tamsui River by blocking the river traffic, guerilla warfare, and mines. 
  • Although the formidable French Navy blockaded Taiwan, Chinese merchants passed through the lax blockade by finding loopholes and operating at night quickly, successfully delivering supplies to its combatants. 
  • Although the Chinese military frequently clashed with the French near Keelungly, their combat mostly ended in a stalemate. However, the French lost many combatants due to diseases. The French remained in Keelung and Penghu Islands until China surrendered Vietnam to the French. 
  • Lessons for today: 
  1. An invasion of Taiwan could be impeded by naval mines or hard obstacles placed at strategic waterways. 
  2. Pehnghu Island is a critical base for blockading Taiwan and launching attacks on the main island. Therefore, Taiwan must have sufficient personnel on the island to prevent the PLA from advancing.  
  3. Blockades are not all effective. Taiwan could deploy a variety of decoys, distractions, and electronic disruptions to confuse Chinese ships and aircraft and then break through the blockade. 
  4. Taiwan's physical environment favors defense and allows defenders to stop invaders effectively. 
  5. China will not launch an invasion until it has sufficient command, control, communications, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance capabilities, and knowledge of Taiwan's physical environment. 
 
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