作者/Author(s): Aosheng Pusztaszeri 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategy and International Studies 

日期/Date: 12/16/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、無人機、中國、烏克蘭 


摘要：
商用無人機在俄烏戰爭中發揮了關鍵作用，尤其是對烏克蘭的行動大有幫助。中國是廉價無人機及零件的最大生產國，在供應方面具有龐大優勢。中國最近限制向烏克蘭銷售無人機及零件，將削弱烏國的戰場行動，同時'幫助俄羅斯加速無人機製造鏈。 
  • 自2023年起，中國已對烏克蘭及中國境內生產的無人機和零件施加出口限制，目的是防止這些產品被用於戰爭。 
  • 然而，中國仍持續向俄羅斯提供軍民兩用技術，以履行與俄羅斯之間的「無上限」夥伴關係。 
  • 中國也因美國無人機製造商銷售產品給台灣，而停止向該公司出口電池，該公司不得不實施電池配給，並限制向烏克蘭供給美製無人機。 
  • 一個國家若失去先進軍事技術所需的關鍵零件，將被迫轉向較低效的武器，或採取其他替代措施；另一方面，若能穩定獲得關鍵零件，就能確保持續戰鬥的續航力。 
  • 烏克蘭每個月大約損失一萬架無人機。在供應鏈日益緊縮的情況下，烏克蘭只能轉向歐洲中介商，以更高的成本且低數量的方式，購買中國無人機及零件，這不但降低了烏克蘭的無人機生產能力，也削減了擴充產能的資金。 
  • 與此同時，此項限制反而對俄羅斯有利。中國透過漏洞、中間商與走私，向俄羅斯提供無人機與零件，增強俄羅斯的無人機能力，讓其在戰場上更能壓制烏克蘭，並攻擊烏克蘭的重要基礎設施。 
  • 如果烏克蘭沒有穩定且可負擔的無人機供應鏈，就無法對俄羅斯進行成功的防禦或反攻行動，還會削弱其在未來談判中的籌碼。
  • 美國和歐洲可以通過補貼烏克蘭當地的武器生產，或幫忙製造無人機零件來支持烏克蘭。 

 

Summary: 

Commercial drones played crucial roles in the Russo-Ukraine War, especially for Ukraine. China is the largest producer of cheap drones and its components, giving it leverage over the supply. China's recent restriction on sales of drones and components to Ukraine will undermine its battlefield operations while allowing Russia to hasten its drone manufacturing. 

  • Since 2023, China has enforced export restrictions on Chinese-manufactured drones and components to Ukraine and China to prevent its products from being used in warfare. 
  • However, China still supplies Russia with dual-use technologies to fulfill its "no-limits" partnership. 
  • China also stopped exporting batteries to US commercial drone manufacturers due to sales to Taiwan. The move forced the company to ration its batteries and restrict the supply of US drones to Ukraine. 
  • The loss of critical components for advanced military technologies will force a country to use less effective weaponries or other measures. On the other hand, stable access to essential parts can enhance a country's capability to continue fighting. 
  • Ukraine loses around ten thousand drones monthly. Amid the tightened supply chain, Ukraine resorted to European intermediaries to obtain Chinese drones and components at higher costs and limited availability. Consequently, it reduced Ukraine's drone production capabilities and funding to expand production. 
  • On the other hand, the restriction benefits Russia. China provided Russia with drones and components through loopholes, intermediaries, and smugglers. It enhanced Russia's drone capabilities, allowing it to overpower Ukraine's position and strike Ukraine's critical infrastructure. 
  • If Ukraine did not have a stable and affordable drone supply chain, it could not mount a successful defense or counteroffensive against Russia. As a result, it will undermine its bargaining position in future negotiations. 
  • The US and Europe could support Ukraine by subsidizing its local arms production and helping Ukraine manufacture its drone components. 
 
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