作者/Author(s): Agathe Demarais 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 12/16/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、歐洲、川普 

摘要：

全球都積極為川普第二任期做準備，特別是在他威脅要對幾乎所有主要經濟體徵收關稅之後。歐盟特別擔憂新一輪關稅將導致內部分裂、讓中歐關係更複雜，削弱制裁俄羅斯的效果。

  • 歐盟成員國正在考慮規避川普的新關稅或先買更多的美國產品。然而，這些方法可能無法阻止普徵收關稅。 
  1. 川普急於減少與歐盟的貿易逆差。在成員國中，德國、愛爾蘭和義大利與美國的貿易順差最大，是川普關稅行動的首要目標。 
  2. 川普可能會放過那些對美國市場依賴程度較低或貿易逆差較小的國家。 
  3. 在這種困境下，歐盟可能因為美歐貿易戰中不同的關稅稅率而分裂。成員國可能採取不同的應對措施，或者不願進行報復。 
  4. 此外，川普可能會與個別歐盟成員國進行雙邊貿易協定談判，條件各不相同。 
  • 川普的新任期將使歐中貿易關係變得更加複雜。 
  1. 在美國關稅的威脅下，中國可能會將出口從美國轉向其他國家，特別是歐洲。 
  2. 這將導致歐盟的「去風險」（de-risking）行動變得更困難，可能迫使歐洲企業在美國和中國之間做出選擇。
  • 川普已經表明，他在就職後會立即結束俄烏衝突。因此，他可能會解除美國對俄羅斯的制裁，並退出與西方夥伴的協調措施。 
  1. 歐盟可能需要獨立對俄羅斯實施制裁，並重新調整制裁措施。
  2. 個別歐盟成員國也可能阻礙歐盟的制裁措施，導致制裁的懲罰措施失效。 
Summary: 
The world is bracing for the second Trump presidency, especially after he threatened tariffs on almost all major economies. The European Union is particularly worried that new rounds of tariffs will fragment the bloc, complicate EU-China relations, and undermine Russia's sanctions efforts. 
  • European Union members are considering circumventing Trump's new tariffs or buying more US products. However, these methods may be insufficient to stop Trump's tariff.  
  1. Trump is keen to reduce the trade deficit with the EU. Among the members, Germany, Ireland, and Italy had the largest trade surplus with the US and were the immediate targets of Trump's tariffs.  
  2. Trump may spare countries that are less reliant on the US market or run a low trade deficit.  
  3. Given the predicaments, the EU may fragment due to different tariff rates among members in a US-EU trade war. Members will have different countermeasures or be unwilling to retaliate.
  4. Furthermore, Trump may negotiate bilateral trade deals with varied conditions among individual EU members. 
  • Trump's new term will complicate the EU-China trade relationship.  
  1. Facing the threat of US tariffs, China will divert its exports away from the US to other countries, especially toward Europe. 
  2. Consequently, it will make the EU's de-risking efforts more challenging and may compel European companies to choose between the US and China. 
  • Trump already signaled that he will end the Russo-Ukraine War immediately after his inauguration. Therefore, Trump may relieve US sanctions on Russia and withdraw from coordinated measures with its Western partners. 
  1. The EU may need to sanction Russia independently and recalibrate its measures. 
  2. Individual EU members may also obstruct the EU's sanction measures, making any punishment ineffective. 
 
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