作者/Author(s): Theodore Bunzel and Elina Ribakova 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 12/09/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、俄羅斯、普丁 

摘要：

西方可以做什麼？ 

  • 拜登政府仍有機會增加對俄羅斯的壓力。 
  • 美國海外資產控制辦公室（OFAC）可以威脅或實施針對非西方油輪的二級制裁，進一步壓低俄羅斯能源價格並限制其能源收入。 
  • 西方還可以對向俄羅斯供應軍事零件的中間商實施二級制裁，並改進其執法機制。 
  • 西方可以公開已扣押的俄羅斯資產，用於重建烏克蘭或作為與俄羅斯談判的籌碼。 
  • 即使沒有美國幫忙，歐洲也可以利用地理優勢追蹤俄羅斯的影子油輪，甚至執行能源價格上限。
  • 歐洲可以從美國購買液化天然氣（LNG），滿足其能源需求，同時削弱俄羅斯的天然氣產業。 
  • 歐洲可以利用被凍結的俄羅斯資產，為烏克蘭採購更多的美國軍備。 
川普因素
  • 歐洲還可以通過購買美國的液化天然氣和武器來安撫川普，讓川普在貿易和外交政策上獲得成果。
  • 川普可以增加商務部工業與安全局（BIS）的資金支持，並加強該機構與OFAC的協調，防止其他對手獲取後西方軍事零件後快速將其重新出口。 
  • 簡而言之，收緊對俄羅斯能源和技術的限制，是川普實現其結束俄烏戰爭目標最有效的方法。這些措施也將降低衝突升級的可能性，並提升烏克蘭的談判地位。 
Summary: 
What the West Could Do? 
  • The Biden administration still has the opportunity to increase pressure on Russia. 
  • The US OFAC could threaten or enforce secondary sanctions on non-Western oil tankers to further devalue Russian energy prices and restrict Russia's energy revenue. 
  • The West could also use secondary sanctions against intermediaries that supply military parts to Russia and improve its enforcement mechanisms. 
  • The West could publicize the Russian assets it seized and use them to rebuild Ukraine or as a bargaining chip with Russia. 
  • Even without the US, Europe could use its geographical position to track Russian shadow tankers and enforce energy price caps. 
  • Europe may buy LNG from the US to meet its energy demands while undermining Russia's gas industry. 
  • Europe could use frozen Russian assets to procure additional US military supplies for Ukraine. 
The Trump Factor 
  • Europe could also appease Trump by buying US LNG and weapons. This would allow Trump to score wins in his trade and diplomatic policies. 
  • Trump could increase funding for the Bureau of Industry and Security and the agency's coordination with OFAC to prevent US other adversaries from obtaining Western military components and reexport them. 
  • In short, tightening the noose on Russian energy and technology is the most effective way for Trump to achieve his aims of ending the Russo-Ukrainian War. These measures will also reduce the possibility of conflict escalation and increase Ukraine's negotiation position. 
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