作者/Author(s): Theodore Bunzel and Elina Ribakova 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 12/09/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、俄羅斯、普丁 


摘要：
川普誓言要在上任後24小時內促成俄烏衝突停火，表示不再支持烏克蘭的抵抗。如今俄羅斯和烏克蘭都不願意退讓，現任美國政府必須確保烏克蘭在上談判桌前有足夠的籌碼。與大眾說法不同，西方制裁確實對俄羅斯的經濟造成損害，因此美國及盟友應該繼續收緊對俄羅斯能源收入與技術進口的制裁。 

搖搖欲墜的基礎 
  • 美國和歐洲原以為全面經濟制裁會摧毀俄羅斯經濟。然而，俄羅斯不僅找到管理財務和繞過西方制裁的方法，經濟甚至還有所成長。 
  • 但在表面繁榮的背後，俄羅斯的通膨急劇上升，勞動力供應日益短缺，外匯儲備也在縮減。 
  • 此外，國防支出佔俄羅斯現有GDP的四分之一，大幅排擠到原用於社會服務的資金。這表明俄羅斯面臨的軍事壓力比專家預測的更大。 
俄羅斯的阿基里斯腱 
  • 西方可以利用俄羅斯的兩大關鍵弱點：能源與技術。 
  • 西方在戰爭初期的制裁手段中，留下了一些漏洞，允許俄羅斯繼續進行能源貿易，因為當時西方面臨高能源價格與通膨的壓力。 
  • 然而，目前全球石油供應穩定，價格較低，西方的通膨率也不高。因此，現在收緊對俄羅斯能源貿易的限制，對全球經濟的影響將較小。俄羅斯不太可能報復西方的能源制裁，因為其生產成本低，而俄羅斯急需能源收入。
  • 許多俄羅斯軍事設備都需要西方零件。雖然西方已對俄羅斯實施出口管制，但俄羅斯仍能通過中間商獲得零件。若西方加強執法，其管制將擾亂俄羅斯的軍事供應鏈，迫使俄羅斯轉向依賴品質較差的中國技術與零件。 
Summary: 
Trump vowed to end the Russo-Ukraine War within one day after his inauguration, indicating that he would not support Ukraine's resistance any longer. Since Russia and Ukraine are unwilling to back down, the current US administration must ensure Ukraine has sufficient leverage before negotiating with Russia. Unlike popular narratives, the Western sanctions damaged the Russian economy, and therefore, the US and its allies should continue to tighten the noose on Russia's energy revenues and technology imports. 
Crumbling Foundations 
  • The US and Europe felt a comprehensive economic sanction would devastate Russia's economy. However, Russia not only found ways to manage its finances and bypass Western sanctions, but its economy also grew. 
  • Behind the veil, Russia's inflation is skyrocketing, labor supply is dwindling, and hard currency is shrinking.
  • DDefense also consumes one-fourth of Russia's current GDP, reducing the funds for social services. This signifies that Russia faces more military pressure than experts have predicted. 
Russia's Achilles Heel 
  • The West could exploit Russia's critical vulnerabilities: energy and technology. 
  • The West deliberately left some loopholes in its sanctions during the initial stage of the war and allowed Russia to continue its energy trade because it faces high energy prices and inflation concerns. 
  • However, the global oil supply is now stable with lower prices, and the West's current inflation is low. Therefore, tightening the noose on Russia's energy trade now will be less devastating to the global economy. Russia is unlikely to retaliate against Western energy sanctions because its production costs are low, and it desperately needs energy revenue. 
  • Most Russian war machines require Western components. Although the West implements export controls on Russia, Russia could procure parts through intermediaries. With stricter enforcement, Western export controls will disrupt Russia's military supply chain, and it may need to rely on inferior Chinese technology and parts. 
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