作者/Author(s): Edward Alden 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 12/11/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、川普、貿易、關稅 


摘要：
川普的第二任決策風格，可能會與他的第一任截然不同，第二任的川普可能會自己主宰美國對外貿易政策，而不是依賴官僚和決策者。川普的第二任期可能會為全球經濟帶來更多動盪，尤其是他的保護主義立場非常明顯。
  • 美國關稅事務並不新鮮。國會會針對貿易實務進行監督調查。因此，各國政府和企業瞭解有關程序，可與美國進行協商。 
  •  萊特海澤擔任川普第一任期貿易代表時，他巧妙地在總統、國會和美國貿易夥伴之間權衡協調。然而，川普這次可能不會任命他擔任任何職位。 
  • 川普已經威脅要增加對墨西哥和加拿大的關稅，直到他們解決芬太尼走私和非法移民問題為止。 
  • 雖然金磚國家的去美元化，很大程度是一種假設性威脅，川普仍對金磚國家成員國發出關稅警告。 
  • 川普也表明，他可能會對不遵守美國利益的盟友使用關稅手段。 
  • 美國國會利用市場准入作為武器，推動國家利益，迫使其他國家遵循美國的價值觀。然而，這些關稅措施受到法律保障，貿易夥伴只能在談判協議中掙扎求生。 
  • 在川普的統治下，關稅已成為美國追求一切議題的工具。然而，川普必須宣稱他的議題對美國國家安全構成不尋常和特殊的威脅，才能引用《國際緊急經濟權力法》。如果川普真的啟動該法案，國會也無力阻止他。 

Summary: 
Unlike his first presidency, Trump may dictate the US's trade portfolios by himself instead of relying on bureaucrats and policymakers. Trump's second term may bring more unrest to the global economy, especially since his protectionist stance is apparent. 
  • US tariffs are not new. Congress will supervise trade practice investigations. Therefore, governments and firms understand the process and can negotiate with the US. 
  • During Robert Lighizer's tenure as the trade representative for Trump's first presidency, he carefully threaded the needle between the president, Congress, and the US trade partners. However, Trump may not appoint him to any positions this time around. 
  • Trump already threatened increased tariffs on Mexico and Canada until they resolved fentanyl smuggling and illegal migration problems. 
  • Although BRICS de-dollarization is more of a hypothetical threat, Trump warned BRICS members of tariffs.  
  • Trump also signaled his willingness to use tariffs against the US allies if they disobey his interests. 
  • The US Congress weaponizes its market access to advance its national interest or compel other countries to follow its values. However, legal mechanisms protect these tariff measures, allowing trade partners to struggle around negotiated agreements.
  • Under Trump, tariffs have become a tool for pursuing whatever irrelevant issue the US wants. However, Trump must declare his issues as unusual and extraordinary threats to the US national security to invoke the International Emergency Powers Act. If Trump indeed utilizes the act, Congress is powerless to stop him. 
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