作者/Author(s): Scott Pence 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 12/06/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、超級大國、弱勢


摘要：
許多美國民眾與決策者都擁護保護台灣的必要性。雖然美國是超級大國，但如果美中交戰，美國需在靠近中國的區域或海上作戰，戰況相對劣勢。考慮到目前解放軍的能力，美國及夥伴國家很難突破中國的 「反介入／區域拒止」（A2/AD）系統，抵達台灣周邊。因此，美國應不要使用他們在最近衝突中曾用過的主導策略，而是運用弱勢者工具來應對台海危機。 
  • 弱勢者（underdog）指的是在不利條件下，承擔風險並大膽嘗試取勝的較弱一方。 
  • 部分弱勢但卻贏得戰爭的國家採取過這三個方法：創新利用現有資源（NURAT）、欺敵戰術以及避開敵方的優勢。弱勢者策略能為對手製造多重困境，同時節約有限資源。 
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  • 建議： 
創新利用現有資源（NURAT） :
  1. 取得新的太空與網路能力，防止指揮與控制系統遭受干擾。使用空中與海上無人機，減少人員傷亡，將戰鬥成功率最大化。 
欺敵戰術： 
  1. 美國必須與印太盟友協調，運用創新技術，打擊中國弱點，讓其措手不及。 
避開對手的優勢： 
  1. 美國應避免挑戰中國在電子戰、反艦和防空領域的主導能力。 
  2. 美國可部署一次性無人機，打破中國的海上封鎖。
  3. 美國可威脅中國的海外港口，限制解放軍的遠程投送能力。 
  • 美國必須了解對抗中國時，主導策略的侷限性及自身相對優勢。在台海危機中，採用弱勢者策略可能更為有效。 
Summary: 
The US public and policymakers support the need to protect Taiwan. Although the US remains a superpower, it will need to fight China near its proximity and from the sea, which puts it at a relative disadvantage. Given the current PLA's capabilities, the US and its partner countries will have problems breaking through Chinese A2/AD systems to get to Taiwan. Therefore, the US should avoid the strategy of dominance that it employed in recent conflicts and use the tools of the underdog in a Taiwan contingency. 
  • An underdog is a weaker side that accepts risks and boldly tries to win despite an unfavorable condition. 
  • Some underdogs prevailed in the war using three tactics: novel use of readily available things (NURAT), deception, and avoiding enemy strengths. An underdog strategy creates several dilemmas for adversaries while conserving limited resources. 
  • Recommendations: 
NURAT:  
  1. Acquiring new space and cyber capacities to prevent command and control disruption and using aerial and sea drones to reduce casualties while maximizing combat successes. 
Deception:  
  1. The US must coordinate with Indo-Pacific allies and apply creative techniques to catch China off-guard and exploit its vulnerabilities. 
Avoid adversaries' strengths:  
  1. The US should avoid China's dominant capabilities such as electronic warfare, anti-ship and anti-air defenses.  
  2. The US can deploy disposable drones to break China's naval blockade. 
  3. The US can threaten Chinese overseas ports to restrict the PLA's force projection capabilities. 
  • The US must acknowledge the limitations of a dominance strategy against China and its relative advantage. An underdog strategy could be more effective in a Taiwan contingency.
 
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