作者/Author(s): Jennifer Kavanagh 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 11/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、飛彈、烏克蘭 


摘要：
拜登冒著越過普丁紅線的風險，批准烏克蘭使用美國提供的飛彈攻擊，深入俄羅斯境內的目標。然而，由於資源和人力的限制，此舉仍無法確保烏克蘭取得勝利。即將上任的川普政府應從拜登的失敗中汲取教訓，為烏克蘭的生存制定務實的解決方案。 
  • 烏克蘭人口比俄羅斯少，傷亡率高，導致士氣低落，因此烏克蘭的作戰力量可能會消耗殆盡。這限制了烏克蘭訓練其人員使用西方現代武器的能力，不論西方提供多少新裝備。烏克蘭部隊更樂於使用蘇聯時代的系統作戰。 
  • 在北韓軍隊的支援下，俄羅斯軍隊數量遠超烏克蘭，烏克蘭部隊難以防守陣地。
  • 烏克蘭使用ATACMS飛彈不僅無法扭轉戰場局勢，反而可能使戰爭升級。俄羅斯也可能在其他地區製造混亂，使美國的決策過程變得更複雜。 
  • 美國承平時期的國防工業基礎與庫存已燒完一大半，不可能無限期地支援烏克蘭。如果戰事持續下去，美國及其盟友的軍備將面臨危險。 
  • 人力和彈藥供應的數據顯示情況對烏克蘭不利。即將上任的川普政府既無法迫使俄羅斯投降，也無法幫助烏克蘭獲得更有利的談判地位。 
  • 因此，更現實的選擇是說服烏克蘭採取防禦策略，致力保住剩餘的領土。 
  1. 烏克蘭應建設分層且高度防護的防禦工事，阻止俄軍推進並減少傷亡。雖然烏克蘭已取得一些進展，但需要更快、更大規模的行動。 
  2. 考慮到當今情勢，烏克蘭、美國及合作夥伴必須放棄一些最高條件，或放寬對俄羅斯的限制，以進行和平談判。然而，俄羅斯也必須向烏克蘭及其支持者做出一定讓步。 
Summary: 
Biden risks crossing Putin's red line after approving Ukraine to attack targets deep inside Russia using US-provided missiles. However, the move still cannot assure Ukraine a victory due to resource and manpower constraints. The incoming Trump administration should draw lessons from Biden's failures and carve a pragmatic solution for Ukraine's survival. 
  • Ukraine will eventually deplete its combat forces due to its lower population compared to Russia and low morale from high casualties. This also limits Ukraine's ability to train its personnel to use Western modern weaponry regardless of the amount of new equipment the West provides. Ukrainian forces are more comfortable fighting with Soviet-era systems. 
  • Russian forces, aided by the arrival of the North Korean army, greatly outnumbered Ukraine, making it difficult for the Ukrainian troops to defend their positions. 
  • Ukraine's use of ATACMS will not reverse its battlefield conditions and may escalate the current war. Russia may also create chaos in other parts of the world, complicating the US's decision-making process. 
  • The US's peacetime defense industrial base had already burned up much of its stockpiles and could not indefinitely support Ukraine. If the trajectory continues, the US will risk its and its allies' military preparedness. 
  • The math of manpower and ammunition supplies does not favor Ukraine. The incoming Trump administration could not pressure Russia to surrender or help Ukraine obtain a better negotiation position. 
  • Therefore, a more realistic option is to persuade Ukraine to take a defense-only approach and focus on retaining its remaining territories. 
  1. Ukraine should build layered and well-protected defensive fortifications to stop Russian advances and reduce casualties. Although Ukraine already made some progress, it needs to be faster and more expansive. 
  2. Given the current situation, Ukraine, the US, and their partners must abandon some maximalist conditions or relax some restrictions on Russia to negotiate peace. However, Russia must also provide allowances to Ukraine and its supporters. 
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