作者/Author(s): Scott Kennedy 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 11/26/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、美國、中國


摘要：
自川普政府首次執政後，美國針對中國發起了一場科技戰，目標是抑制中國的科技發展，減少對中國供應鏈的過度依賴，保護美國國家安全免受外部威脅，同時提振國內經濟。美國發現了中國科技野心的危險，但其反制措施效果不一，而且力度不足。在川普即將重返白宮之際，他的團隊已為更廣泛的脫鉤做好準備，但必須提防其政策帶來的反作用力。 
  • 雖然北京加大其對半導體產業的投資，並設置獎勵措施，但拜登政府的科技戰仍抑制了中國半導體行業的發展，拜登政府也準備對其他產業實施限制。 
  • 美國的政策無意中減緩了中國的經濟成長。此外，中國政府對高科技行業的重視，加劇了不同產業之間的緊張關係。中國專家對政府政策有效性抱持懷疑，但又害怕公開表達意見。 
  • 拜登的技術限制讓中國加快追求技術自立，積極與美國供應鏈脫鈎。
  1. 這些限制也促進中國某些領域的研究與發展。 
  2. 雖然中國在半導體技術上落後於頂尖生產國，但正逐步建立本土生態系統和供應鏈。 
  3. 中國清潔技術領域領先全球，是現今最大的清潔技術生產國，產品出口廣泛，並藉此建立起跨國體系。
  • ​​​​​​​即將上任的川普政府必須認識到科技政策對自身的影響 
  1. 無法在海外開展業務和投資，大幅減少了半導體企業的機會和研發資金。 
  2. 禁止與中國進行學術交流，也限制了美國的創新與研究生產力，尤其是中國為人工智慧培育了許多人才。 
  3. 增加關稅和限制的威脅，將迫使中國及其他國家轉向非美國技術，這將減緩美國的清潔能源轉型，美國企業的全球競爭力將淪為劣勢。 
  4. 許多國家開始擴大本地半導體製造，全球半導體供應過剩的風險可能增加。
  • ​​​​​​​美國的去風險化政策雖然提高了經濟安全，但也伴隨極大的反作用。如果即將上任的川普政府繼續推行脫鉤政策，且忽視國際機構，現有問題將進一步惡化。因此，美國必須設定明確的優先事項，集中精力應對日益緊迫的威脅。
Summary: 
Since the first Trump administration, the US has conducted a technological war against China, aiming to dampen China's technological growth, reduce overdependence on the Chinese supply chain, protect US national security from foreign threats, and boost the domestic economy. The US correctly identified the dangers of Chinese technological ambitions, but its countermeasures had mixed results and were inadequate. The incoming Trump second administration is prepared for more expansive decoupling but must beware of the costs of its policies. 
  • Although the Beijing government invested in and incentivized its semiconductor industry, Biden's administration's technological restrictions partially restricted the growth of China's semiconductor sector. The administration is also ready to impose limitations on other industries. 
  • The US policies inadvertently slowed China's economic growth. Furthermore, the Chinese government's emphasis on the high-technology sector incited tension among different industries. Chinese experts doubt the government's policies will work but fear publicly voicing their opinions. 
  • However, Biden's technological restrictions accelerated China's pursuit of technological self-reliance and decoupling from the American supply chain.  
  1. The limitations also boosted Chinese research and development in some sectors.  
  2. Although China lags behind top semiconductor producers, it is building an indigenous ecosystem and supply chain. 
  3. China leads the world in clean technology, becoming the top clean technology producer, proliferating its products globally, and allowing it to build its transnational networks. 
  • The incoming Trump administration must grasp the implications of its technological policies on itself. 
  1. The inability to conduct business and invest overseas significantly reduced opportunities and R&D funds for semiconductor firms. 
  2. Bans on scholarly exchange with China also restricted US innovation and research productivity, especially because China produces many talents for AI. 
  3. The threat of increased tariffs and restrictions compels China and other countries to shift away from American technology. Furthermore, it will slow down the US's clean energy transition and make US companies less competitive globally. 
  4. The danger of global semiconductor oversupply is possible because many countries are starting or expanding local semiconductor manufacturing. 
  • The US's derisking improved its economic security but with considerable blowbacks. The incoming administration will exacerbate existing problems if it continues to pursue decoupling policies and ignore global institutions. Therefore, the US must set unambiguous priorities and focus on urgent threats. 
 
 
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