作者/Author(s): Rush Doshi 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 11/29/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、貿易、川普、中國 


數量取勝 
  • 中國的人口數量遠超美國，並且是全球上百個國家的最大貿易夥伴。因此，美國需要盟友的支持，來應對中國的規模優勢。
  • 除了振興國內基礎外，美國也必須在經濟、技術和安全領域，加強與盟友協調。 
  • 美國必須集中資源，協調關稅、貿易法規和出口管制，保護本土產業，防止敏感技術落入有心人士手中。 
  • 美國必須在 AUKUS 和 QUAD 等安全架構基礎上，遏制中國在南海的敵對行為，加強與地區盟友的軍事協作，說服合作夥伴，允許部署美國武器系統，以遏制中國的侵略性。
  • 川普必須放棄單邊主義，爭取更多美國盟友的合作。川普政府在上任後，應避免對盟友徵收關稅，重新保證美國的安全承諾，並與合作夥伴協調經濟措施，制定有效的對中戰略。
威脅、虛張聲勢與承諾 
  • 中國正積極做好準備，以應對川普政府的第二任期，特別是川普威脅將提高對中國產品的關稅。中國已準備對美國實施反制性關稅、出口管制和制裁。北京政府還可能打壓現今駐中國的美國企業。然而，中國將根據美國的行為，調整反制政策的力度。 
  • 目前尚不清楚川普政府將如何與中國談判，目標是什麼。不過，中國可能會破壞川普與其堅定支持者，還有行政部門的關係，以削弱美國的反華政策。 
  • 然而，川普政府在上任後，不應馬上對中國下重手，而是要逐步增加對中國的壓力，避免讓中國的反應太過複雜，同時能讓美國及其盟友做出調整，甚至獲取中國有意義的讓步。
  • 中國正努力展示其作為全球領導者的形象，並將美國形容成一個衰退中的大國。中國也積極修復與日本、歐洲和印度的緊張關係，以削弱美國的優勢。 
Strength in Numbers 
  • China outnumbers the US population and is the largest trade partner for more than 100 countries. Therefore, the US needs allies' support to compete with China's size. 
  • Apart from reinvigorating domestic bases, the US must also enhance its coordination with allies in economics, technology, and security.  
  • The US must pool resources and coordinate tariffs, trade regulations, and export controls to protect its industries and prevent sensitive technologies from falling into the wrong hands.
  • The US must build on security frameworks such as AUKUS and QUAD to deter China's hostility in the South China Sea, improve military coordination with regional allies, and persuade its partners to allow the positioning of US weapons systems to deter China's aggressiveness. 
  • Trump must abandon his unilateralist approach to gain cooperation from US allies. The incoming Trump administration must avoid imposing tariffs on allies, reassure the US of its security commitments, and coordinate economic measures with partners to devise an effective China strategy. 
Threats, Bluffs, and Promises 
  • China is bracing itself for the incoming administration, especially after Trump threatened an increased tariff on Chinese products. China is ready to impose counter-tariffs, export controls, and sanctions against the US. The Beijing government may also crack down on China-based US companies. However, China will tailor the intensity of its policies based on the US's behavior. 
  •  It is unknown how the incoming Trump administration will bargain with China and what the aims of the negotiation will be. However, China may fracture Trump's relations with his staunch friends and the executive branch to undermine the US's anti-China policies. 
  • Nevertheless, the Trump administration should gradually increase pressure on China rather than go heavy-handed in the first place. This will not only complicate China's response but also allow the US and its allies to adjust or obtain meaningful concessions from China. 
  • China will also try to show itself as a global leader while painting the US as a declining power. Furthermore, China is also repairing its strained relations with Japan, Europe, and India to reduce the US's advantage. 
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