作者/Author(s): Rush Doshi 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 11/29/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、貿易、川普、中國


摘要：
川普較為偏好交易性的政策，因此常常與主張競爭性策略的幕僚相左，想要預測川普的對華政策，以及北京可能的反應，難度已經越來越高，而川普第二任也高機率會延續這種政策。此外，美國在技術、經濟互賴以及南海軍事領域超越中國的機會之窗，正在迅速關閉。如果特朗普繼續採取交易型策略，可能會削弱其幕僚的決策效力。如果川普繼續採取交易式的做法，可能會削弱其幕僚的決策能力。

改革國內政策  
  • 國內政策決定國力。過去三十年來，美國國力正在走下坡，因此必須大幅改革政策，才能與中國競爭。 
  • 美國必須盡快重振國防工業基礎，以應對中國在南海的挑戰。 
  1. 目前，美國在軍事衝突中的彈藥生產與庫存方面存在問題。
  2. 中國擁有大型造船工業和維修能力，而這正是美國所缺乏的。
  3. 川普政府在上任後的前兩年，可能專注於無人系統和彈藥供應，然後再轉去重振造船業。
  • 美國也必須發展防禦能力，制定相關法律，以保護其關鍵基礎設施免受惡意網路攻擊。 
  • 中國是全球製造業的強國，在前端技術領域頗具前景。因此，美國必須重振製造業基礎，保持技術領先地位。此外，美國也必須避免對盟友徵收懲罰性關稅。
  • 川普政府必須爭取國會的兩黨支持，通過重要法案，向美國民眾闡明與中國競爭理由，爭取公眾的支持，才能長期與中國競爭。 
 
Summary: 
It is difficult to anticipate the incoming Trump administration's China policy and Beijing's possible reaction, given that Trump often contradicted his staff's competitive approach and preferred a transactional one, which he could continue in his incoming term. Furthermore, the US's window of opportunities to outcompete China in technology, economic dependence, and military in the South China Sea is closing fast. Trump could undermine his staff's decision-making if he continues his transactional approach. 

Reforming Domestic Policies 
  • Domestic policies define national power. The US's national power bases have deteriorated over the past three decades, and therefore, it must reform its policies substantially to compete with China. 
  • The US must urgently reinvigorate its defense industrial base to counter China in the South China Sea.  
  1. The US currently has problems in producing sufficient ammunition for military conflicts. 
  2. China also has a large shipbuilding industry and maintenance capacities, which the US lacks. 
  3. The incoming Trump administration could focus on unmanned systems and munition supplies in its first two years and then move on to reinvigorate its shipbuilding industry. 
  • The US must also develop defensive capabilities and enact legislation to protect its critical infrastructure from belligerent cyberattacks. 
  • China is a global manufacturing powerhouse and has prospects in frontier technology. Therefore, the US must revitalize its manufacturing bases and maintain its technological leadership. Furthermore, the US must avoid punitive tariffs against its allies. 
  • The Trump administration must also garner bipartisan support from Congress to pass important bills and mobilize the American public by addressing the rationale of its policies in competing with China. 
 
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