作者/Author(s): Mie Hoejris Dahl 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date:11/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 一帶一路、經濟 


摘要：
習近平在出席亞太經濟合作組織（APEC）峰會期間訪問秘魯，並為一個深水港揭幕。該港口是中國「一帶一路」倡議的一部分，但可能成為最後一個大型項目。 
  • 習近平提出 BRI 旨在提升中國的外交影響力，同時外包國內過剩的資源、生產能力和人力。 
  • 該倡議也幫助拉丁美洲和加勒比地區不少發展中國家，增建和升級他們的基礎設施。 
  1. 中國願意向該地區提供條件寬鬆的大型發展項目融資，而美國和歐盟則持保留態度。
  2. 然而，這些項目因施工品質低劣和腐敗問題備受批評，招致大量負面評價。不少國家也因此背負沉重債務，需要世界銀行和美洲開發銀行介入並協助償還貸款。 
  3. 陷入債務困境的國家試圖透過其他方式償還中國，但債務數額過於龐大，中國可能難以收回投資。 
  • 中國現今面臨國內經濟和政治困難，持續縮減大規模「一帶一路」項目，轉向專注於前端投資的小型項目。 
  1. 不合標準的「一帶一路」項目也削弱了中國的外交影響力。 
  2. 中國無法繼續為大型「一帶一路」項目提供融資，不少項目面臨延誤或終止的命運。
  3. 中國傾向於透過數位化、通訊、電動汽車和清潔能源等前端項目，收回投資並降低風險。 
  4. 與傳統的基礎設施項目相比，中國的新重點具有更低風險、更少支出以及更快經濟回報的特性。 
  • 在能源和經濟生產成長的同時，拉丁美洲仍需要大型基礎設施。中國投資該地區的資金大幅減少，讓非中國開發銀行有機會填補缺口。然而，這些開發銀行無法滿足拉美國家對巨額資金的需求。 
  • 中國轉向數位基礎設施的戰略，可能幫助拉丁美洲國家推自動化和人工智慧動製造業，升級生產基礎，引領清潔能源轉型。然而，這一新計畫也讓各國有國家安全方面的擔憂。 

Summary: 
Xi Jinping inaugurated a deep-water port during his visit to Peru for the APEC summit. The port is part of China's BRI project but may also be the last. 
  • Xi introduced the BRI to boost China's diplomatic influence while outsourcing its excessive resources, production, and manpower. 
  • The BRI also helped developing Latin America and Caribbean countries add and upgrade their basic infrastructures. 
  1. China is willing to finance large development projects with loose conditions to the region, while the US and European Union were reluctant. 
  2. However, the projects drew more criticism than praise for their substandard construction practices and corruption. They also left countries with burdensome debts, requiring intervention from the World Bank and Inter-American Development Bank to service them. 
  3. Debt-distressed countries tried to repay China through other means. However, China may not regain its investments because the debts are too much. 
  • Yet, amid domestic economic and political predicaments, China is scaling down massive BRI projects, opting for smaller projects focused on frontier investments. 
  1. Substandard BRI projects also undermined China's diplomatic influence. 
  2. Due to China's inability to continue financing large BRI projects, some projects face delays or termination.  
  3. China is also keen to regain and de-risk its investments by tilting towards frontier projects, especially in the digital, communication, electric vehicle, and clean energy sectors. 
  4. China's new focus presents less danger, lower expenses, and quicker economic returns than traditional BRI infrastructure projects. 
  • Latin America still needs large infrastructure amid growth in energy and economic production. Chinese funds to Latin America dropped tremendously, giving non-Chinese development banks the opportunity to fill the gap. Yet, these development banks could not satisfy Latin American countries' appetite for more funds.
  • However, China's shift to digital infrastructure could help Latin American Countries upgrade their production bases by implementing manufacturing automation and artificial intelligence. It could also help them undergo a clean energy transition. Yet, there are also national security concerns arising from the new scheme. 
 
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