作者/Author(s): Lizzi C. Lee
網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy
日期/Date: 11/13/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、外交、戰略
摘要：
川普重返白宮意味著美中貿易戰可能再次白熱化。然而，中國經歷了川普首次執政的經濟對測，以及拜登政府延續的持久經濟戰後，或許已擁有一套應對「川普2.0」的策略。 目前的地緣政治和經濟環境對中國不利。此外，在川普的顧問多次希望發起對中更激進的政策後，中國可能預期川普政府立場將更加鷹派。
- 雖然中國面臨內外挑戰，但他們仍積極致力於提升內需、降低對出口的依賴，推動多元化供應鏈。
- 中國已經針對不少美國公司發起制裁，主攻與台灣、中國供應鏈相關，以及大量營收來自中國的美國公司，以提升其談判地位。
- 中國預期美國惠面臨增加關稅所帶來的貨幣問題，要與中國脫鉤供應鏈也將面臨許多挑戰。
- 中國也熟悉川普民粹反全球化的態度，但卻不知道政策與言論的力度差距。
- 川普的「美國優先」論述可能削弱美國對外聯盟和外交關係，提供中國增加全球影響力的絕佳機會。
- 然而，中國也清楚，他們現今與歐洲國家的關係並不和睦，歐洲可能不會與北京站在同一陣線。
- 在這背景下，中國選擇成為其他國家務實且穩定的合作夥伴。
- 中國正在加速技術自立，減輕來自國內和國際的壓力。因此，中國與發展中國家的貿易關係有所改善，能夠建立替代性的貿易體系，實現其全球野心。
- 中國認為川普實行的是交易型政策，也了解川普喜歡出風頭，看重個人人際關係。和人際關係。因此，中國可能會透過川普或顧問之間的私人關係進行互動，但仍會對川普的不可預測性保持警惕。
- 無論川普的行動為何，中國的重點是要降低自身面對外部挑戰的脆弱性，提升國家韌性。
Summary:
Trump's return to the White House means the possibility of an intensified trade war with China. However, after experiencing his first administration and a protracted economic war with the Biden administration, China may have a playbook to deal with Trump 2.0. The current geopolitical and economic climate is unfavorable to China. Furthermore, China expects a more hawkish Trump administration, especially after his advisors touted more aggressive policies.
- Despite facing hurdles, China is keen to increase domestic consumption, decrease export reliance, and diversify its supply chain.
- China already sanctioned US companies with ties to Taiwan, China-related supply chains, and a large revenue share from China to bolster its position.
- China expects the US will face monetary problems from an increased tariff and difficulties in diverting its supply chains from China.
- China is also familiar with Trump's populist anti-globalization attitude but could never know the extent of his rhetoric.
- Trump's "America First" narrative may fragment its alliances and foreign relations, allowing China to increase its global influence.
- Yet, China also knows that its relations with European countries are currently sour, and therefore, they may not align with Beijing.
- In this case, China opts to be a pragmatic and stable partner for other countries.
- China is accelerating its technological self-reliance to reduce domestic and international pressure. Consequently, China's trade relations with developing countries have improved, allowing China to create alternative trade networks and realize its global ambitions.
- China interprets that Trump practices a transactional approach to his policies and understands Trump's love for the limelight and personal connections. Therefore, China may exploit some personal connections with Trump or his advisors to conduct business but will remain wary of Trump's unpredictability.
- Regardless of how Trump will act, China will focus on minimizing its vulnerabilities to external challenges and enhancing China's resilience.