作者/Author(s): Hal Brands 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 11/04/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、制裁、戰爭


摘要：
經濟戰是拜登政府卸任前，面臨的最大外交政策議題。自古以來，各國運用經濟戰手段的例子層出不窮，但美國在過去四年間使用頻率大幅提升。拜登政府透過經濟戰限制中國進入美國的關鍵產業，並懲罰俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的行動。這些制裁重塑了全球政治經濟格局，影響未來十年的發展態勢。 
  • 經濟實力是全球權力的象徵，深刻影響外交政策的運籌帷幄。在大國戰略競逐加劇的時期，經濟實力重要性不斷提升。 
  • 經濟戰過去曾經歷一場革命，後範疇變得更廣泛，影響力更強大。
  • 雖然經濟制裁主要旨在改變目標對象的行為，但近年來，削弱目標對象國力已成為各國發起經濟戰的主要動機之一。 
  • 發起一場能壓制對手的經濟戰爭固然重要，但建立防禦機制同樣不可或缺。 
  • 美國可以執行強大的經濟懲罰，但與盟友協調可以讓制裁變得更有利力有效。
  • 大國可以用經濟戰來取代傳統戰爭，避免直接捲入衝突。 
  • 經濟戰影響力龐大，但並非解決所有問題的萬靈丹。 
  1. 美國的金融制裁並沒有讓俄羅斯經濟崩潰，也沒有阻止其侵略行為。 
  2. 俄羅斯找到了減輕西方制裁影響，以及繞過西方經濟體系的替代方案。 
  • 美國的經濟戰迫使敵人在潛在的西方制裁面前，加強本國經濟的自主性，或自己也發動攻勢經濟戰反制。 
  • 濫用經濟戰爭的說法一直存在，這可能損害美國盟友與夥伴的利益。 
Summary: 
Economic warfare is the largest foreign policy issue for the outgoing Biden administration. Although state actors have practiced economic warfare since ancient times, the US has wielded it more over the past four years. The Biden administration used economic warfare to restrict Chinese access to the US key sectors and punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. These sanctions reshaped the global political economy and will continue for the next decade. 
  • Economic strength is a symbol of global power and influences diplomatic statecraft. It became more significant in times of strategic rivalry. 
  • Economic warfare underwent a revolution, becoming more expansive and potent.
  • Although economic sanctions mainly focus on changing a target's behavior, weakening the target's capability has become the main motive in recent years. 
  • Suppressing an opponent's economic warfare is important but building defensive mechanisms is also crucial. 
  • The US can execute substantial economic punishment, but coordination with allies could enhance its power and make it more effective. 
  • Great powers could substitute military warfare with economic warfare to prevent getting involved directly in a conflict. 
  • Economic warfare is influential, but it is not a panacea for all issues.  
  1. The US financial sanctions did not collapse the Russian economy or stop its belligerence.  
  2. Russia found ways to mitigate the implications of the Western sanctions and alternatives to bypass the Western economic system. 
  • The US economic warfare compelled its adversaries to insulate its economy against potential Western sanctions or conduct its own offensive economic warfare. 
  • There is always the potential to overuse economic warfare, which damages the interests of the US allies and partners.
 
 
 
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