作者/Author(s): Scott Kennedy 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/31/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、美中、川普 


摘要：
中國可能不會公開支持任何美國總統候選人，但無論是賀錦麗還是川普勝選，中國都必須為與美中之間的的經濟戰做好準備。 
  • 賀錦麗可能會延續拜登的科技政策和限制措施。不過她可能會試圖與北京政府尋求共同點，防止競爭升級成衝突，有效管理雙方的對外關係。 
  1. 川普很可能威脅對中國加徵關稅，並且不論中國是否做出讓步，川普都要徵收關稅，這種做法會讓中國經濟面臨巨大壓力，甚至損害中美關係 
  • 如果川普重返執政，中國已經經歷過他第一次執政時的壓力，也許更願意承擔川普帶來的經濟壓力，並試圖在管理雙方關係上取得優勢。
  1. 中國此前僅對川普的關稅行動作出回應，並未處理潛在的技術限制問題。 
  2. 如今，中國已經做好面對貿易和技術聯合制裁的心理準備。中國企業厭倦了成為美國霸凌的受害者，也\對中國減緩貿易戰影響的能力充滿信心。 
  3. 為了保護全球經濟不被分裂，中國或許能爭取到部分美國親密盟友的支持。
  • ​​​​​​​中國可能會如何應對美國？
  1. ​​​​​​​懲罰相對依賴中國產品的頂尖美國跨國企業。
  2. 加強對關鍵礦產和其他產品出口的控制。 
  3. 減少美元持有量，讓人民幣貶值。
  • ​​​​​​​中國的這些行動旨在引發美國市場焦慮，間接促使美國的盟友勸說川普，穩定中美關係。 
  • 川普團隊應評估經濟戰的可能情境，開發更多新方案，力拼在對中國施加壓力的同時，減少美國經濟損害。川普政府應加強與盟友和發展中國家的關係，提升地位。 
Summary: 
China may not endorse any US presidential candidate, but regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins the presidency, China must prepare for an economic war with the US.  
  • Harris may continue Biden's technology policies and restrictions. However, Harris may seek common ground with the Beijing government to prevent their competition from evolving into a conflict, allowing them to manage their diplomatic ties. 
  • Harris may continue Biden's technology policies and restrictions. However, Harris may seek common ground with the Beijing government to prevent their competition from evolving into a conflict, allowing them to manage their diplomatic ties. 
  • If Trump returns to the presidency, China may be more willing to absorb economic pains to have an advantage in managing their relations after experiencing them during Trump's first tenure. 
  1. China only responded to Trump's tariff without addressing potential technological restrictions. 
  2. Now, China anticipates combined trade and technological boycotts. Chinese businesses are tired of being the victim of the US's bullying and are confident about China's ability to reduce the implications of another trade war. 
  3. China may find friends among the US's close allies in protecting the global economy from fracturing.
  • ​​​​​​​How China may face the US? 
  1. Punishing US top transnational firms, especially those relying on Chinese products.
  2. Tightening its chokehold on critical mineral and other product exports. 
  3. Reducing its dollar holdings and devaluating the Yuan. 
  • China's steps are to generate anxiety in the US market, which may compel US allies to talk Trump down to stabilize relations with Beijing. 
  • Trump's new administration should consider economic warfare scenarios and seek alternatives that could maximize pressure on China while reducing damage to the US economy. The administration should foster stronger ties with its allies and developing countries to strengthen its position.
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