作者/Author(s): Scott Kennedy 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 10/29/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、制裁 


摘要：
一些中國企業無法理解美國政府將其列入黑名單的動機。美國政府以國家安全或人權為由，試圖正當化其「小院高牆」的做法，但其行為值得商榷。美國應該在計畫擴大對中國技術和商品的防禦措施之際，重新審視這些做法帶來的負面影響，並仔細考慮是否有更好的替代方案。 

負面影響： 
  • 拜登的「小院高牆」戰略旨在保護國家安全，同時減少貿易中斷。然而，美國的作法限制了美中企業之間的貿易，甚至強制改變了現有供應鏈，招致北京報復。如果這種趨勢持續下去，中美可能會在許多領域陸續脫鈎，迫使全球供應鏈分裂。 
  • 出口管制可能會限制中國的技術成長幾年年。但是中國已在追求技術自立，積極投資本土產業，以應對美國的限制。中國在某些領域可能會比美國發展得更快，而美國的創新力反而會因為與中國產業缺乏連結而受到影響。 
  • 中國的清潔能源製造業雖然享有不公平的補貼，但禁止相關產品進口，只會延緩美國轉型至清潔能源的進度。 
  • 美國的經濟民族主義做法可能會阻礙開放貿易和金融流動，逐步去全球化。
美國應調整其方法： 
  • 美國必須找出其想要且願意接受的結果。 
  • 美國必須分析其方法和政策的效益。
  • 美國應收集更多與中國威脅相關的資訊，以瞭解真正的危險所在，積極向民眾傳達其政策理念。 

Summary: 
Some Chinese firms could not understand the US government's motives for blacklisting them. The US government justified its "small yards, high fence" approach in the name of national security or human rights reasons, but its actions are questionable. The US should examine the negative consequences of its approach and whether there are better alternatives, especially when it plans to expand its defensive measures against Chinese technologies and goods. 

The negative impacts: 
  • Biden's "small yard, high fence" approach aims to protect national security while reducing disruption in its trade. However, the US actions limited trade between the US and Chinese firms, rerouted supply chains, and invited retaliation from Beijing. If the trend continues, the US and Chinese may decouple in many sectors and force a fragmentation of the global supply chain. 
  • Export controls may limit China's technological growth for several years. However, China has pursued technological self-resilience and is willing to invest in its industries as a response to the US's restrictions. China may advance faster than the US in some areas, with the US innovation suffering due to a lack of connection with the Chinese industry.
  • China has an unfairly subsidized clean-energy manufacturing industry, but banning the products will only slow the US's transition to clean energy. 
  • The US approach to economic nationalism may restrict open trade and financial flows, causing de-globalization. 
The US should recalibrate its approach: 
  • The US must identify the preferable outcomes that it wants and is willing to accept. 
  • The US must analyze the cost-benefit analysis of its approach and policies. 
  • The US must gather more information regarding the threats of China to understand the real dangers and disseminate its findings to the public. 
 
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