作者/Author(s): Scot Kennedy and Andrea Leonard Palazzi 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、兩岸、台商


摘要：
許多跨國公司因為兩岸緊張的局勢、中國貿易和投資政策緊縮以及其他挑戰原因，陸續考慮撤出中國。也有些公司不願意離開中國龐大的市場和高吸引力製造業價值鏈。這種兩難局面在台灣最為明顯。因此，全球企業可能會觀察台灣公司在中國經營或退出中國市場的行為。 
  • 台商樂觀地認為，美國和中國在未來五年內不會發生武裝衝突，北京不太可能為了保住寶貴的半導體產業而入侵台灣，而台灣的盟友會在關鍵時刻挺身保衛台灣 
  • 台灣企業則力圖減少對中國的依賴，增加與他國或多邊組織的貿易、投資與發展合作。 
  • 台灣企業一致認為需要保護台灣的技術優勢，支持積極的技術政策。 
  • 部分台商正將業務和投資自中國大陸和台灣轉移到鄰近國家，並非是擔憂地緣政治問題，而是為了降低風險。 
  • 台商的行為表明，他們並非要與中國脫鉤，而是想打造多元化供應鏈。
  1. 中國仍然是台灣的第二大貿易夥伴。 
  2. 《兩岸經濟合作架構協議》（ECFA）是拓展台灣國際商機最重要的協議。 
  3. 台商只是將部分投資和業務移出中國，並未完全撤出。 
  4. 雖然台灣對中國的直接投資有所下降，兩岸貿易關係依然非常緊密。 
  5. 中國仍然是台灣非常重要的經濟夥伴，重要性遠超美國和歐洲。這一趨勢在短期內不會改變。 
  • 影響
  1. 如果美國從去風險轉變為與中國脫鈎，可能會引起台灣和其他理念相近夥伴的抗議。 
  2. 隨著兩岸政治緊張及北京持續的經濟脅迫，台灣企業對於中國市場仍然缺乏信心，甚至逐步遠離中國市場。如果中國希望實現其政治和經濟目標，則需要改變現有的政策和行為。
  3. 台灣領導人應了解，其產業並不支持針對中國的限制性政策。雖然「新南向政策」取得了一些成果，有效促進多元化，政府仍需做更多努力，讓「新南向政策成為更可信的長期選項。政府也必須讓企業對台灣未來的商業環境和經濟前景抱持信心。 
Summary: 
Many transnational companies are considering leaving China amid a hostile cross-strait environment, restrictive Chinese trade and investment policies, and other challenges. Yet, some are reluctant to leave China's large market and attractive manufacturing value chain. The dilemma was most evident in Taiwan. Therefore, global firms could observe the behavior of Taiwanese companies regarding doing business in China or withdrawing from the Chinese market. 
  • Taiwanese businesses are optimistic that the US and China will not have an armed conflict in the next five years, Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan to preserve its valuable semiconductor industry, and Taiwan's partner will come to Taiwan's defense when needed. 
  • Taiwanese businesses seek to decrease dependence on China and increase cooperation with other countries or multilateral trade, investment, and development organizations. 
  • Taiwanese firms agree on the need to protect Taiwan's technological advantage, advocating for offensive technology policies. 
  • Taiwanese companies are shifting their operations and investments from both Mainland China and Taiwan to neighboring countries, not because of fear of geopolitical issues but to reduce their risks. 
  • The behavior of Taiwanese firms indicated that they are not decoupling but diversifying their supply chain. 
  1. China is still the second most important trade partner. 
  2. ECFA is the single most important agreement for expanding their international business opportunities. 
  3. They are only moving a portion of their investment and operations from China, not a complete escape. 
  4. Although Taiwan's direct investment in China has fallen, cross-trade relations are still strong. 
  5. China is still an eminent economic partner to Taiwan, far more important than the US and Europe. The trend will not change soon. 
  • Implications: 
  1. If the US changes from mitigating risks to decoupling from China, it may face protests from Taiwan and other like-minded partners. 
  2. Due to cross-strait political tensions and Beijing's economic coercion, Taiwanese businesses still lack the confidence to do business in China and are moving away from China. China will have to change its policies and behavior if it wants to achieve its political and economic aims. 
  3. The Taiwan central government should notice its industry does not embrace restrictive policies against China. Although the New Southbound Policy saw some success and allowed diversification, the government needs to do more to make the program more credible as a long-term option. The government also must assure its businesses about the island's future commercial environment and economic future. 
 
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