作者/Author(s): Seth G. Jones 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/02/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、國防、中國 

 
摘要：

雖然中國正面臨許多國內問題，但美國政策制定者對於遏制中國軍事崛起的緊迫意識正在不斷增長，有部分美國決策者沾沾自喜，認為人們都高估解放軍了，它還是無法與美國的軍事優勢競爭。然而對美國來說，真正的問題是，中國即使面臨經濟困難，其軍事工業基礎和國防支出仍在快速增加，而美國卻明顯落後了。美國如果想要遏制中國，維持世界其他地區的和平，就必須重振國防工業，加強軍事後勤準備。 

  • 習近平宣稱，建設世界一流軍隊對提升中國的全球地位至關重要。因此中國在過去十年中建立了龐大的國防工業基礎，生產先進的軍事軟硬體，一躍成為美國的競爭對手
  • 中國快速軍事擴張的核心是其國有企業。目前，中國有四家國防國有企業在總收入方面名列前茅，凸顯其龐大的生產能力。 
  • 中國的創新能力讓解放軍能夠部署先進平台，同時擁有複雜的綜合數位基礎設施來進行指揮和控制。
  • 中國海軍是其軍事優勢最成功的案例之一。雖然解放軍海軍在某些能力上落後於美國，但它擁有全球最大的造船和維護能力，能幫助中國在美中持久戰中維持相對優勢。此外中國也可以利用商用船廠生產軍用物品，擴大海軍優勢。
  • 美國在現代戰機生產數量上仍處於領先地位，但中國已經逐漸趕上，甚至在無人機等其他空中能力方面取得進展。
  • 中國也逐步推動戰略飛彈庫現代化，這些飛彈可以打擊美國在西太平洋的基地。中國也測試了高超音速滑翔飛行器等新技術，而美國還沒開始測試這些新技術。 
  • 中國還積極發射衛星，改善其電信系統，加強其韌性。 
  • 中國的解放軍陸軍也是全球規模最大的，操作的裝備數量比美國更多。
Summary: 
There is a growing consciousness of the urgent need to contain China's military rise among US policymakers, although China faces several domestic problems. Some policymakers are complacent that the PLA is overrated and cannot compete with the US military dominance. The real problem for the US is the fast-growing Chinese military industrial base and defense spending despite its economic predicaments, while the US is visibly falling behind. The US must increase its military readiness by rejuvenating its defense industry if it wants to contain China and maintain peace in the rest of the world. 
  • Xi Jinping declared a world-class military is crucial for elevating China's global status. Consequently, China developed a large defense industrial base that produces advanced military hardware and software over the past decade, becoming a peer competitor of the US. 
  • Central to China's rapid military proliferation is its state-owned enterprises. China currently has four top-ranked defense SOEs in terms of overall revenue, signifying its vast production capacity. 
  • China's innovation capability allows the PLA to deploy advanced platforms and gives the PLA a complex and integrated digital infrastructure for command and control. 
  • The PLA Navy is the most significant success of China's military dominance. Although the PLA Navy lags behind the US in some capabilities, it has the largest shipbuilding and maintenance capacity. In a protracted war, China's shipbuilding capability would give it an advantage over the US, especially when China could also utilize commercial shipyards. 
  • Although the US still leads in the production number of modern combat aircraft, China is catching up and is advancing in other air capabilities such as drones. 
  • China is also modernizing its strategic missile inventory that could hit US bases in the western Pacific. China already tested new capabilities such as hypersonic glide vehicles, but the US has not. 
  • China also proactively launched satellites to improve its telecommunication systems and enhance its resilience. 
  • The PLA army is also the largest in the world, operating more instruments compared to the US. 
 
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