作者/Author(s): Yiyao Alex Fan and Bonnie S. Glaser 

網站來源/Source: German Marshall Fund 

日期/Date:08/24/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 台灣統一、政治、兩岸 


摘要：

和平統一後的制度安排  

保守派學者著種統一後的制度安排，同意台灣應保留經濟獨立，但是否需要保留社會、政治、司法和軍事制度，學者們表示懷疑。

  • 保守派學者在觀察香港混亂後，堅持要取代台灣的社會、政治和司法制度。台灣在改組成特別行政區之前，需要交出其主權和中華民國身份。學者們擔心分裂運動會威脅到中華人民共和國的國家安全與利益。 
  • 學者們同意台灣可以保留公職人員民選，但建議審查候選人，排除支持台獨的人。
  • 他們還認為，北京政府應該主導兩岸統一後的台灣教育。 
  • 他們強調台灣的外交權必須由中央政府主導，但台灣可以繼續參加一些國際組織。 
  • 學者們對台灣軍隊問題看法不一，但對分裂主義抱有同樣的憂慮。部分學者呼籲應完全解散台灣軍隊，讓解放軍取而代之，另一些則建議將其重組為解放軍的一部分，或降為次要角色。
影響 
  • 雖然學者自2019年就開始討論「兩制」方案，但並無明確證據表明北京會採用該方案。中共中央委員會確實宣布了解決台灣問題的總體戰略，強調和平統一，戰略模糊的空間還在擴展中。 
  • 習近平和中共的台灣政策基於幾個假設：
  1. 中華人民共和國的國力將成長，相對的國力差距將比台灣政府能提供的更多。''
  2. 中國的國力持續上升，而美國國力不斷減弱。 
  3. 台灣統一是攸關生存的利益問題。 
  4. 中國假設胡蘿蔔和大棒策略，可以迫使台灣同意與北京進行政治談判。 
  5. 他們認為，台灣民眾對維持兩岸現狀、拒絕統一的想法不會持久。
  • ​​​​​​​學者們得出結論認為，台灣方的參與對於實現任何兩岸方案至關重要。然而，他們也假設習近平了解台灣不會接受類似香港「一國兩制」的事實，因此呼籲中央政府設計新的機制。此外，北京有可能聽取學者們的建議，制定促進統一的全面計劃。 
Summary: 
 

Institutional Arrangements After Peaceful Reunification 

Conservative scholars focus on post-reunification institutional arrangements and agree that Taiwan should retain economic independence but cast doubts on the need for Taiwan to keep its social, political, judicial, and military institutions. 

  • Conservative scholars, after observing the chaos in Hong Kong, insisted on replacing Taiwan's social, political, and judicial institutions. Taiwan would need to surrender its sovereignty and ROC identity before restructuring into a SAR. The scholars are concerned that secessionist movements would threaten the PRC's national security and interests. 
  • The scholars agreed that Taiwan can keep democratic elections to choose public officials but suggested candidates must undergo an eligibility review to eliminate pro-independence individuals. 
  • They also believe the Beijing government should dictate Taiwan's post-reunification education. 
  • They also asserted Taiwan must surrender its diplomacy to the central government but could continue to participate in some international organizations. 
  • Scholars have mixed opinions regarding Tawian's military but shared concerns about separatism. While some call for the total disbandment of Taiwan's military and replacing them with the PLA, others proposed reorganizing them into the PLA or relegating them to secondary roles. 
Implications 
  • Although scholars debated the "Two Systems" plan since 2019, there is no sign that the Beijing central government introduced it. The CCP Central Committee did announce an overall strategy for resolving the Taiwan issues emphasizing peaceful reunification, but it is vague and under development. 
  • Xi's and CCP's Taiwan policy are based on several assumptions: 
  1. PRC's national power will continue to expand and the relative power disparity will be greater than what the Taiwan government can offer to the Taiwanese. 
  2. China's national power is still rising while the US will weaken. 
  3. Taiwan reunification is a matter of existential interest. 
  4. PRC assumes its carrots and sticks could compel Taiwan to agree to political negotiations with Beijing. 
  5. They presume the Taiwanese's preference for maintaining the cross-strait status quo and rejecting unification will not last. 
  • The scholars concluded that Taiwan's participation is crucial for realizing any Taiwan plan. However, they assume Xi accepts the fact that Taiwan would not accept a 1C2S system akin to Hong Kong, therefore asking the CCP and central government to devise new mechanisms. Further, Beijing may heed the advice of scholars and devise a comprehensive plan to promote reunification.
 
 
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