作者/Author(s): Yiyao Alex Fan and Bonnie S. Glaser 

網站來源/Source: German Marshall Fund 

日期/Date: August 2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 統一台灣, 政治 

摘要:

中國的保守派與進步派學者都明白民進黨政府不會接受「一國兩制」在台灣的推行,但他們對此持有不同的看法

  •  保守派
  1. 他們認為,「一國兩制」安排是台灣的最佳選擇,因為北京政府允許台灣保留其社會制度和一定程度的自治。他們主張,這種安排能夠充分尊重台灣的現有體制和生活方式,並為台灣提供相對的自由和自主權。
  2.  他們對中國與台灣之間的談判條件沒有明確的指導方針,但他們預期台灣在談判中可能不會有太多談判籌碼,這與香港和澳門的情況類似
  • 進步派
  1. 進步派認為,台灣方案具有豐富的雙方探索與合作機會,因為它不涉及外國勢力
  2.  他們還強調,在討論「兩制」的內容之前,需要首先明確「一國」的定義。因此,台灣和中國可以作為聯邦體制下的兩個實體共存,聯邦政府統領下各自擁有獨立的憲法。

和平統一的途徑 

  •  一些學者認為,習近平在他的台灣新方案中考慮了和平統一的可能性
  • 中國將通過促進與台灣的經濟和社會互動來獲益,包括擴大經濟機會、整合兩岸基礎設施、促進合作以及共享資源。學者們認為,綜合發展可以繞過民進黨設置的政治障礙,以拒絕「一中」的存在,並將台灣納入兩岸經濟和社會發展的議程中。
  • 綜合發展的優勢包括
  1. ​​​​​​​通過向台灣人民提供實際利益,展示統一和「一國兩制」的好處,贏得台灣人民的支持
  2.  促進台灣和中國民間社會之間的非政府交流,增進信任,減少台灣人對「一國兩制」的誤解,為兩岸和平協議和最終和平統一創造機會
  • ​​​​​​​然而,學者們對綜合發展持懷疑態度,因為台灣的民進黨政府限制了兩岸政府之間的互動 
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Summary: 

Difference in the interpretation of the Taiwan Plan 

Chinese conservative and progressive scholars understood the DPP government would not welcome 1C2S in Taiwan, but they held different opinions. 

  • Conservatives: 
  1. ​​​​​​​They argued that the 1C2S arrangement is the best option for Taiwan because the Beijing government allows Taiwan to retain its social system and a certain degree of autonomy. 
  2. They do not have clear directions in the negotiation terms between China and Taiwan, but they presume the Taiwanese do not have much bargaining position, as in the case of Hong Kong and Macao. 
  • ​​​​​​​Progressives: 
  1. ​​​​​​​They proposed that Beijing could negotiate the Taiwan plan with the Taiwanese government as long as they could unify.
  2. Progressives consider the Taiwan plan to have plenty of chances for mutual exploration and cooperation because it will not involve foreign powers.  
  3. They also emphasize the need to define "one country" before negotiating the context of "two systems." Therefore, Taiwan and China could coexist as a federation governed under a federal government but with separate constitutions. 
The Path to Peaceful Reunification 
  • Some scholars claimed Xi was considering peaceful unification in his new Taiwan Plan.
  • China would benefit from economic and social interaction by promoting integrated development with Taiwan. It involves expanding economic opportunities, integrating cross-strait infrastructure, promoting cooperation, and sharing resources. Scholars believe integrated development could bypass the political barricade DPP enacted to reject the existence of "One China" and include the Taiwanese in the cross-strait economic and social development agenda. 
  • The advantages of integrated development are:
  1. ​​​​​​​Displaying the benefits of reunification and 1C2S by giving tangible benefits to the Taiwanese and winning their hearts. 
  2. Facilitating non-governmental exchanges between the civil society of Taiwan and China. It will enhance trust and reduce misinterpretation of the 1C2S among Taiwanese, giving a chance for a cross-strait peace agreement and eventual peaceful unification. 
  • ​​​​​​​However, scholars are skeptical of integrated development because Taiwan's DPP government limited intergovernmental interactions.