作者/Author(s): Elias X. Huber
網站來源/Source: Lawfare
日期/Date: 08/22/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: Technology, Export Control科技、出口管制、量子計算
 
出口管制措施的不足 
  • 美國的出口管制措施長遠來看可能無效，原因如下：
  1. 量子技術發展仍處於早期，美國很難限制特定創新技術，管制措施可能反變成浪費，甚至減少美國公司的收入，阻礙量子科技發展。此外，美國的管制措施也可能加快中國開發本土替代方案。 
  2. 大多數量子新創企業位於北美和歐洲。量子技術還是新技術，這些公司必須透過國際合作才能開發出成果。許多國家可能會礙於美國的單邊限制，將研發轉移到管制較少的國家，美國的反制限制反而無效。 
  3. 美國的限制措施反而可能會減少競爭對手對外國的依賴，選擇發展本土企業擴張，這有利於中國國內創新。如果中國成功開發量子技術，將削弱美國的技術領導地位。 
  • 出口管制可能可以減少零件轉移至中國，但無法阻止人力資本和知識流動。美國對中國公民或機構的簽證和撥款限制，可能阻止中國取得美國的知識。然而，中國量子領域研究人員競爭力很強，大部分人都曾在西方發展過。 
  • 此外，基於美中雙方語言和安全觀念的差異，限制知識交流的作法並不穩定從長遠來看，這也會對未來量子技術治理構成危險。 
  • 美國可以採取更全面和中立的方式，允許中國在一定程度上參與量子技術，鼓勵西方公司在中國進行研發，減少雙方之間的知識和資訊不對稱，打造更安全的世界。 
Summary: 
The Deficiency of the Export Controls
  • The US export control measures may be ineffective in the long term due to the following reasons: 
  1. Quantum technology development is still premature. Since the US cannot target specific innovation, the controls may be wasteful, reduce US company revenues, and halt the development of quantum technologies. Further, China may eventually catch up to the US by figuring out indigenous alternatives. 
  2. Most quantum start-ups are based in North America and Europe. As it is still new, companies must collaborate with their international peers for their quantum innovation to bear fruit. Without multilateral coordination, unilateral restrictions may divert research and development to less controlled countries, rendering the restriction ineffective.
  3. US restrictions may benefit Chinese domestic innovation by removing competitors and foreign options, encouraging local firms to expand. If China succeeds, it will undermine the US's technological leadership. 
  • Export controls may limit the transfer of hardware to China, but they cannot stop the flow of human capital and knowledge. Visa and grant restrictions on Chinese citizens or institutions may prevent China from assessing the US's knowledge base. However, Chinese researchers are highly competitive in the quantum field, especially when most of them had early careers in the West.
  • Further, restricting knowledge exchange is precarious due to differences in language and perception of security. In the long term, it will also pose dangers to responsible governance of quantum technologies. 
  • The US could use a more comprehensive and neutral approach by allowing China to have limited participation in quantum technology and encouraging Western firms to conduct research and development in China. These measures could reduce the knowledge and information asymmetries between them, making the world safer. 
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