作者/Author(s): David Sacks 

網站來源/Source: Council on Foreign Relations 

日期/Date: 08/09/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦、國防預算、中國 


摘要：
台灣計畫明年增加近百分之六的國防支出，以顯示其對國家安全的決心。雖然如此，台灣的軍力將嚴重落後解放軍，嚇阻能力也將下降。台灣必須提升增加國防預算的速度，展現自我防衛的決心。
  • 前總統蔡英文應該受到表揚，因為她持續增加台灣的國防預算，目前該預算已達到北約成員國設定的標準。此外，蔡總統也延長了徵兵服役時間，重振台灣的國防工業基礎，並改革台灣的後備部隊。這些措施都是提升台灣作戰能力的關鍵作為。 
  • 然而，蔡總統無法改變國防部內部保守的文化，比起採用不對稱防禦能力，他們更傾向於傳統的作戰平台。 
  • 雖然台灣的新任國防部長顧立雄是文官出身，但他在蔡英文政府中擔任國安會秘書長的經歷，讓他對台灣複雜的安全環境、外交關係以及外界對國防部的看法有更深入的理解。因此，顧立雄主動推動國防部改革，追求創新並修訂部分軍事戰略。 
  • 然而，外國專家擔憂台灣在面臨生存威脅的情況下，國防支出仍然不足，專家建議國防支出至少應達到GDP的百分之三。 
  • 更讓台灣雪上加霜的是，中國宣布2025年國防預算將增加7.2%，速度快於台灣的預算標準，進一步擴大台灣海峽雙方的差距。
  • 台灣不僅需要增加國防預算以達到標準，也必須解決防禦需求。台灣可以增加國軍的薪水福利，吸引更多人民加入軍隊，擴大關鍵戰鬥物資的庫存，投資國防創新。 
  • 雖然台灣能自己決定如何分配和使用其預算項目，但他們必須意識到預算決策將影響美國和其他國家在危機中對其的支援程度。 
 
Summary: 
Taiwan recently planned to increase defense spending by almost six percent next year to show its resolve in national security. Despite the increase, Taiwan's military will lag further behind China's PLA, undermining the deterrence in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan must increase its defense budget far more rapidly to show its self-defense resolve. 
  • Former president Tsai should be praised for continuously increasing Taiwan's defense budget, which now is approximately the baseline set for NATO members. Further, Tsai also extended the timeline for conscription, reinvigorated Taiwan's defense industrial base, and reformed Taiwan's reserve forces. These steps show significant efforts to improve Taiwan's combat ability. 
  • However, Tsai could not transform the conservative culture within the Ministry of Defense (MND), preferring legacy platforms over adopting asymmetric capabilities for defenses. 
  • Although Taiwan's new defense minister, Wellington Koo, has a civilian background, his experience as the secretary general of the NSC in the Tsai administration gives him a thorough understanding of Taiwan's complicated security environment, diplomacy, and foreign perception of the MND. Consequently, Koo took the initiatives to reform the MND by pursuing innovation and amending some military doctrines.
  • Yet, foreign experts are concerned that Taiwan did not spend enough on defense in spite of its existential threat, suggesting a minimum of three percent of GDP. 
  • To exacerbate Taiwan's woes, China announced an increase in defense budget by 7.2 percent for 2025, which is faster than Taiwan's baseline and broadens the gap between them. 
  • Taiwan does not need to increase defense spending just to meet the baseline, but it must address its defense needs. Taiwan could increase the monetary incentives to attract more citizens to join the military, expand the inventory of critical combat supplies, and invest in defense innovations.
  • Although Taiwan ultimately decides how to allocate and use its money, it must realize that budgetary decisions will impact how much the US and other countries will support it during a crisis. 
回上層