作者/Author(s): A. Wess Mitchell 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 08/15/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事 


摘要：
烏克蘭庫斯克攻勢對美國戰略具有重大影響。相比等待中國入侵台灣，美國通過代理戰爭擊敗俄羅斯將是更有利的選擇。此外，美國還沒有準備好與強大敵人打多線戰爭。在短時間內集中精力盡快結束俄烏戰爭，美國可以削弱俄羅斯對歐洲的威脅，將資源重新投注在印太地區的嚇阻力。 
  • 自俄烏戰爭開始以來，相比俄羅斯、中國和伊朗，美國及其盟友在應對方面做得並不多。
  1. 俄羅斯提高國防預算，宣布進入戰時經濟狀態。 
  2. 中國將其金融體系逐步脫鉤，分散供應鏈，增加在台灣周邊的軍事活動，並加速達到與美國核平等的地位。 
  3. 伊朗增加國防預算，向中東的代理人提供軍事裝備，縮短核突破時間。 
  4. 相比之下，美國重振國防工業基礎時面臨困難，其歐洲盟友也缺乏足夠準備打仗或嚇阻戰爭爆發。他們也還沒準備好應對一場持久戰。 
  • 庫斯克攻勢對烏克蘭和西方具有戰略意義，烏克蘭可以利用這些戰果與俄羅斯談判此西方應支持烏克蘭的攻勢，盡快結束衝突，為基輔創造更好的談判條件。 
  • 美國應該向烏克蘭提供適當的武器，並取消使用限制以支援烏克蘭的攻勢。雖然這可能會不小心導致衝突升級，將北約和美國捲入戰爭，但這仍是讓歐洲穩定下來，轉而支援亞洲的更佳方案。 
  • 美國必須為俄烏衝突定義明確且可達成的政治目標，恢復烏克蘭在 2022 年衝突前既有的主權邊界、自治、經濟與安全，有效加強歐洲對俄羅斯的嚇阻力，讓美國能專心處理亞洲的衝突。 
  • 與此同時，美國及盟友必須重振國防工業基礎，增強國防能力，嚇阻美國的對手。 
Summary: 
The Kursk offensive has a significant implication for the US strategy. The US would benefit by inflicting a defeat on Russia through a proxy war rather than waiting for China to attack Taiwan. Further, the US is unprepared to fight a two-front war against strong opponents simultaneously. By focusing on ending the Russo-Ukraine War, the US could weaken the Russian threat to Europe and free up resources to enhance deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. 
  • However, the US and its allies did nothing much compared to Russia, China, and Iran since the Russo-Ukraine War began. 
  1. Russia bolstered its defense budget and entered a wartime economy. 
  2. China insulated its financial network, diversified its supply chains, increased its military presence around Taiwan, and hastened efforts to attain nuclear parity with the US. 
  3. Iran increased its defense budget, sent military equipment to its proxies in the Middle East, and shrunk its nuclear breakout time. 
  4. The US also struggled to reinvigorate its defense industrial base compared to its opponents. Its allies in Europe are also ill-prepared to fight or deter a war. They are also unprepared to fight a protracted war. 
  • Therefore, the Kursk Offensive is strategically significant for Ukraine and the West because Ukraine could use captured territories to bargain with Russia. Therefore, the West should support Ukraine's offensive to end the war faster and give Kyiv better negotiating terms. 
  • The US would need to provide Ukraine with suitable weapons to sustain its offensive and remove any usage restrictions. It may inadvertently escalate the conflict by drawing NATO and the US into the war, but still a better option to prioritize Asia before Europe becomes stable. 
  • The US must also define clear and attainable political objectives for the war, restoring Ukraine's sovereign borders before the 2022 invasion, autonomy, economy, and security. It could bolster Europe's deterrence against Russia and allow the US to focus on Asia. 
  • At the same time, the US and its allies must rejuvenate their defense industrial base to enhance defenses and deter US adversaries. 
 
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