作者/Author(s): A. Wess Mitchell 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 08/15/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事 


摘要：
烏克蘭正在俄羅斯境內發動反攻，加快結束戰爭，讓美國能夠重新調整地緣政治優先事項。然而，美國應授權烏克蘭在現今攻勢中使用其武器，並為衝突設定明確的終戰指導。雖然這樣做很危險，但比起猶豫不決地援助烏克蘭，直到中國或伊朗迫使美國陷入多線戰爭，這顯然是更明智的選擇。 
  • 烏克蘭目前的攻勢與之前的小規模突襲不同： 
  1. 涵蓋至少五個不同軍種且訓練有素的旅級部隊 
  2. 攻勢更深入，開始佔領關鍵地點，並控制後勤基礎設施。 
  3. 烏克蘭不是打了就跑，打了之後會調派更多的部隊和裝備來鞏固戰果。 
  • 這場攻勢暴露了俄羅斯邊境防禦的弱點，鼓舞烏克蘭人的士氣。普丁目前也很難對烏克蘭的攻勢做出有效回應。 
  • 陣地戰和天氣讓烏克蘭享有防禦優勢，得以堅守陣地。俄羅斯可能會優先保護其他邊境入口，短時間內不會重新奪回失地，防止進一步損失。
  • 俄羅斯試圖打長期戰爭，維持其優勢，但烏克蘭的攻勢打亂了俄羅斯目前的策略。現在即使烏克蘭的進攻行動失敗了，也有望打破僵局，帶來更多優勢。此外，俄羅斯失去領土的打擊可能比經濟制裁更嚴重。 
Summary: 
Ukraine is conducting an offensive inside Russia, giving it a chance to end the war faster and allowing the US to realign its geopolitical priorities. However, the US should authorize Ukraine to use its weapons in the current offensive and define a clear end state for the conflict. Although it is dangerous, it is a better alternative than aiding Ukraine half-heartedly until China or Iran forces the US into a multi-front war. 
  • Ukraine's current offensive is different from previous small-scale attacks: 
  1. It involves at least five well-trained brigades of all service branches. 
  2. The offensive has gone much deeper, allowing the Ukrainians to capture key locations and control logistical infrastructures. 
  3. Instead of hit-and-run attacks, Ukraine fortify its gains by bringing in more troops and equipment. 
  • The offensive exposed weaknesses in Russia's border defenses and gave Ukrainians a morale boost. Putin also struggled to provide an effective response against the Ukrainians. 
  • It is likely the Ukrainians could hold their ground due to the advantages of defense over offense in positional warfare and weather. Russia would likely prioritize protecting other border entries rather than recapturing its grounds to prevent further losses. 
  • Russia has the upper hand by prolonging the war, but the Ukrainian offensive upsets Russia's current strategy. Even if the Ukrainian offensive fails, it could break the stalemate and give Ukrainians an advantage. Further, a loss of territory would be more damaging to Russia than economic sanctions. 
 
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