作者/Author(s): Daniel Byman 

網站來源/Source: Lawfare 

日期/Date: 08/04/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 政治


摘要：
美國仍然是一個超級大國，它的政策和偏好將影響未來幾年的全球局勢。冷戰結束後，美國的外交政策一直搖擺不定。 
  • 不同的政府有不同的外交政策，有些政策具有延續性，但政策不連續的情況更常見。 
  • 政黨政治在美國外交政策中扮演了一定的角色，甚至在同黨的不同派系中也有同樣道理。美國可能每四年或八年就有不同的外交政策方針或重點，就美國總統對結盟、衝突干預和跨國貿易政策的看法傳達多元訊息。 
  • 美國外交政策的反覆不定，導致他們很難成攻。美國應承諾外交政策江跨越不同黨派政府，即使是選舉過後仍然有效且高度一致。
  • 如果美國的盟友不確定他們在需要時能否獲得美國的支持，他們可能不願意承諾共同應對威脅。美國外交政策的可預測性，將增強美國與盟友間的協調能力。 
  • 然而，大部分政策都很難持續獲得國內支持，更遑論那些本就需要很長時間才能奏效的政策。 
  • 美國的對手可能會利用政策不穩定來挑釁美國。他們認為，只要堅持夠長的時間，美國的國內政治局勢可能對他們有利。 
  • 政策的不穩定將對國際和國內政治產生影響，甚至削弱美國作為全球穩定超級大國的角色。 
Summary: 
The US is still a superpower. Its policies and preferences will influence the world for years to come. After the end of the Cold War, the US foreign policy has been inconsistent or indecisive.  
  • It is normal for different administrations to have varying foreign policies. Some policies have continuities, but discontinuities are more common. 
  • Party politics played a role in the US foreign policy, even within different wings of the same party. The US may have different foreign policy approaches or focus every four or eight years, sending mixed messages regarding the US president's perspective on alliances, conflict intervention, and cross-border trade policies.
  • Fluctuations in the US foreign policy make it difficult for any approach to succeed. The US foreign policy commitments should span across administrations to be effective and consistent even after the next elections. 
  • If allies are uncertain whether the US would support them when needed, they may not commit to countering shared threats. Predictability enhances intergovernmental coordination. 
  • However, it may be difficult to sustain domestic support for any particular policy over time, especially when some policies take a long time to work. 
  • US adversaries may take advantage of US policy inconstancy to conduct belligerence. They believe US domestic politics may eventually sway in their favor if they hold on long enough. 
  • The US role as a stabilizing global superpower may diminish due to its policy inconsistency, with ramifications to international and domestic politics. 
 
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