作者/Author(s): Brandon Valeriano, Mikkel Storm Jensen, and Jose M. Macias III 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 07/08/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 灰色地帶、電腦 
摘要：

北約可能面臨低於武裝衝突門檻的多領域作戰 (MDO)，聯盟的團結性受到考驗。北約應制定明確的策略，讓夥伴國家一同參與特殊行動。 

  • MDO，特別是灰色地帶衝突，為尚未制定反制措施的國家帶來新困境。因此，北約必須釐清當成員受到非傳統領域新手段攻擊的動員反擊標準。 
  • 資訊、太空與網路的整合在聯盟行動中變得越來越重要。目前有許多研究討論個別國家應對灰色地帶衝突的行動，但對於聯盟的角色卻少有深入的探討。 
  • 混合行威脅持續增加，而新型脅迫手段的複雜性也導致聯盟決策變難。 
  1. 各國在網路攻擊和電子作戰方面有不同的策略。北約成員之間並沒有一致規範，也很少提及集體行動的可能角色。 
  2. 大多數北約小國強調網絡韌性，有些國家則努力避免對其他國家實施網路攻擊。然而，情報共享對於應對混合威脅而言至關重要。 
  • 北約需要利用兵棋推演來探討MDO執行與嚇阻的可能性，面對低門檻脅迫的決策過程尤為重要。這些演習將整合聯盟的團結和國內外交政策優先事項，能有效最大化盟友支持，減少陷入困境的風險。
Summary: 
NATO will grapple with multi-domain operations (MDO) that fall below the threshold of armed conflict and may test the alliance's unity. Therefore, the coalition should devise strategies that include partner countries in special operations. 
  • MDOs, especially gray zone conflicts, create new dilemmas for nations that have yet to formulate countermeasures. Therefore, NATO must clarify the conditions in which it will mobilize when a member is attacked in non-traditional domains with novel means. 
  • Information, space, and cyber domain integration is becoming more important in coalition operations. Although there is much literature on individual initiatives for countering gray zone conflicts, there are little insights into the role of alliances. 
  • The complexity of novel coercive methods complicates alliance decision-making, despite that hybrid threats are increasing.  
  1. Individual countries have different strategies for offensive cyber and information operations. Their strategies are not aligned among NATO members and there are little mentions on the role of collective actions. 
  2. Most small NATO allies emphasize cyber resilience and some refrain from using offensive cyber operations against other state actors. Yet, intelligence sharing is important for countering hybrid threats. 
  • Therefore, NATO needs wargaming exercises to explore the decision-making for conducting and deterring MDOs, especially low-threshold coercions. The exercise would explore alliance unity and domestic foreign policy priorities, which is important to maximize support from allies while reducing the risk of becoming entrapped. 
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