作者/Author(s): Jonathan D. Caverly 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/07/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事


幾乎沒用 

  • 乍看之下，中國吞併台灣後軍事力量高機率會增強，台灣可能成為中國採取更多敵對軍事行動的基石。 
  • 解放軍的火箭可以從中國大陸打到沖繩和呂宋。併吞台灣只會增強中國在西太平洋的影響力。 
  • 一些專家認為，中國可以更輕鬆地投射其軍事力量，或併吞台灣來打破第一島鏈封鎖。事實上位於第一島鏈的大多數國家皆為中立或美國盟友，它們位於台灣南北，擁有數量充足且能攻擊台灣的飛彈。因此，解放軍留在中國大陸會比駐紮在台灣更安全。 
  • 中國在控制台灣後，可以在東部海岸外布置更多水下聽音器來威脅美國的潛艇。
  • 雖然水下聽音器能夠偵測到極遠距離外的船隻，但精準度不高。澳洲、日本和美國的艦隊皆擅長隱藏其存在，避免被中國偵測。而中國龐大的衛星網路也讓中國不需要在台灣周遭布置水下聽音器。
高風險、低回報  
  • 在這種情況下，保護台灣對維持美國有利的軍事平衡意義不大。美國及其盟友應該專注於美中之間的持久戰，以保護自由開放的國際水域以及日本和菲律賓的領土完整。 
  • 首先，美國應該承認其保衛台灣的代價很高。如果美中發生衝突，雙方都會受損。然而，中國可以比美國更好地重新調整西太平洋區域力量。
  • 一旦美國接受了保衛台灣的嚴峻現實，就應該幫助台灣建立正確的防禦能力，把台灣變成一隻刺蝟，並支持台灣的國防工業。 
  • 加強台灣的自我防衛能力是嚇阻中國的最佳方式，同時也能讓美國專注於其他關鍵威脅。
Little to Nothing 
  • At first impression, China could bolster its military forces after annexing Taiwan. Taiwan could be China's jumping board for more hostile military actions. 
  • However, PLA rockets could reach Okinawa and Luzon from Mainland China. Capturing Taiwan would only offer China extra reach in the Western Pacific. 
  • Some experts argued China could project its military power more easily or impede the first island chain by acquiring Taiwan. However, most countries in the first island chain are neutral or align with the US and bookend Taiwan. They also have sufficient missile capabilities to attack Taiwan. Therefore, the PLA is safer in Mainland China than positioning itself in Taiwan. 
  • China may threaten the US's submarine fleets better after controlling Taiwan by deploying more hydrophones beyond China's east coast. Although hydrophones could detect ships at very long distances, they are inaccurate. Australian, Japanese, and US fleets have better success concealing their presence than being detected by China. Further, China's extensive satellite networks make hydrophones off Taiwan superfluous. 
High Risk, Low Reward 
  • Given the circumstances, protecting Taiwan makes little sense in preserving a favorable military balance for the US. Therefore, the US and its allies should focus on fighting a protracted conflict with China to protect free and open international waters and the territorial integrity of Japan and the Philippines. 
  • First, the US should acknowledge that defending Taiwan would be costly. If the US and China clash, both will suffer. However, China could recondition its regional forces better than the US. 
  • Once the US accepts the harsh fact of Taiwan's defense, it should help Taiwan to procure the correct capabilities to turn the island into a porcupine and support Taiwan's indigenous defense industry. 
  • Bolstering Taiwan's self-defense capabilities is the best way to deter China and allows the US to focus on more critical threats. 
 
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