作者/Author(s): Jonathan D. Caverly 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/07/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事


摘要：
許多專家將美國、世界與台灣的命運聯繫在一起，認為他們有必要捍衛台灣。台灣在全球經濟體制的重要性、民主制度，以及保護理念相近國家的承諾對美國來說至關重要，但嚇阻中國人民解放軍並非這麼簡單。即使中國併吞台灣，美中之間的軍事實力差距也不會改變。更糟的是，中國在西太平洋擁有地緣優勢，因此中國可能在美國試圖協防台灣時打擊美國珍貴的軍事資產，削弱美國的軍事實力。 

足夠強大 
  • 在習近平的領導下，解放軍已轉型成一支強大的現代化軍隊，其中又以火箭軍最為突出。 
  • 解放軍擁有大量中長程火箭庫存，射程可達地中海東部。龐大的衛星網路可精確偵測及追蹤對手的作戰平台，背後更有強大的商業營運商支持。
  • 雖然美國可以反制中國的太空能力，但這也可能帶來反作用力，例如製造過多太空垃圾或激起中國的報復。此外，中國也有其他手段來追蹤美國的資產。 
  • 整體而言，中國已成為一個十分危險的對手，並不需要額外的領土來挑戰美國的軍事力量。
Summary: 
Many experts link the fate of the US and the world to Taiwan, justifying the need to defend the island against an ambitious China. Taiwan's economic importance, democracy, and credibility in protecting a like-minded country are critical to the US, but containing the PLA is not. The US military power parity with China would not change even if China annexed Taiwan. Worse, with a terrain advantage, China would have the opportunity to destroy US prized military assets in the attempt to defend Taiwan, weakening the US military power. Although the US should not abandon Taiwan, it should prepare itself for a protracted conflict and focus on issues vital to the US's global interests. 

Strong Enough 
  • Under Xi's leadership, the PLA has transformed into a formidable and modernized military, especially its rocket force. 
  • The PLA had a large inventory of medium and long-range rockets that could reach places as far as the eastern Mediterranean. It was enhanced by an expansive network of satellites to detect and track adversarial platforms with great precision and supported by commercial operators.
  • Although the US could counter China's space capabilities, it poses many challenges including creating space junk and provoking China's retaliation. Further, China has other means to track US assets.
  • In short, China is already a dangerous adversary that does not need extra territory to challenge the US military.
 
 
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