作者/Author(s): Hanna Dohmen, Jacob Feldgoise, and Charles Kupchan 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 07/24/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 半導體、科技 

 
機會之窗越來越小 
  • 美國可以阻礙中國開發與部署人工智慧，來維持自身競爭優勢。然而一旦中國本土發展出先進晶片和晶片製造設備，美國將不再具有優勢。 
  • 美國的出口管制無意間加速了中國本土半導體產業的發展，創造了推動研發的市場條件。 
  • 中國可能很快就研發出先進晶片製造設備，甚至趕上全球半導體行業的領導者，利用其國內能力大規模生產人工智慧晶片，施惠於整個經濟體系。儘管尚不清楚中國何時能實現其潛力，但美國利用當前差距的機會有限。雖然我們不知道中國何時能實現這方面的潛力，但美國利用現今差距的機會越來越小。 
  • 科技產業的趨勢可能導致美國的機會之窗越來越小。AI 設計公司正在使用多個低效能晶片，組成單一效能較高的封裝來訓練和執行 AI 模型。中國也在跟隨這股趨勢，開發只需要少量計算能力的複雜 AI 模型。 
  • 美國的管制措施可能會對其自身及盟國半導體行業產生反作用力，他們失去了大量的中國市場業務，沒有收入來投資研發。 
  • 出口管制也會加劇國際經濟分裂和美中間的地緣政治分歧。 
加速創新 
  • 促進技術進步和創新能力是美國保持領先的最佳方法。 
  • 美國固然可以利用當前的進展，但必須更多地投資未來先進技術。 
 
Summary: 
Narrowing window of opportunity 
  • The US could retain its competitive lead by impeding China's development and deployment of AI. However, the US will lose its edge once China develops domestic alternatives for advanced chips and chipmaking equipment. 
  • The US export control accidentally speeds up the development of China's indigenous semiconductor industry by creating a favorable market condition for driving research and development. 
  • China could soon manufacture advanced chip fabricating equipment and catch up with global semiconductor industry leaders. China could also use its domestic capacity to produce AI chips at a large scale and use them throughout its economy. Although it is unknown when China could realize its potential, the US has limited opportunity to capitalize on the current disparity. 
  • Industry trends could narrow the US window of opportunity. AI design companies are using multiple less powerful chips to form a single higher-performing package that could train and implement AI models. China is also following the trend and is developing less sophisticated AI models that require less computational capacity.
  • The US control could backfire against its and allies' industries because they lose substantial business in China and do not have the revenue to invest in research and development.  
  • The export control also exacerbates the fragmentation of the international economy and the geopolitical divide between China and the US. 
Accelerating Innovation 
  • The best way for the US to stay ahead is to promote its technological advances and innovative capabilities. 
  • The US could take advantage of current progress but must do more to invest in future frontier technologies. 
 
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