作者/Author(s): Stacie Pettyjohn, Hannah Dennis, and Molly Campbell
網站來源/Source: Center for a New American Security
日期/Date:06/20/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、無人機戰爭、防禦
無人機尚未改變現代戰爭，但它們提供了一種新的戰鬥方式。在模擬台灣海峽的衝突情境中，美國、台灣和中國可能會頻繁使用無人機來縮短打擊鏈。烏克蘭危機展示了無人機戰爭的前景，烏克蘭在戰鬥中創新並適應了無人機，但俄羅斯卻在生產上超越了烏國，讓戰爭迎來轉捩點。本文通過利比亞、納卡和烏克蘭的案例研究，分析了印太地區可能的無人機戰爭情景、對美國的挑戰以及對美國和台灣的建議。
美國在印太地區的挑戰
美國在印太地區的挑戰
- 目前美國在印太地區可有效使用的無人機數量有限。大多數美國或盟軍基地距離台灣超過500英里，甚至達到數千英里。相較於中國，美國較難發起和維持無人機行動。
- 雖然美國可以操作遠距離無人機，但成本相對較高。中國憑藉出色的工業能力可以輕鬆地使用價格便宜的無人機攻擊台灣。
不同的作戰概念
- 中國：擁有一支龐大且不斷增長的無人機隊伍，利用無人機來壓制或摧毀台灣的防禦系統，支援入侵部隊，協助主力部隊的情報、監視和偵察（ISR）行動，並進行反潛作戰。
- 台灣：主要使用無人機進行防禦，針對海上力量、阻止入侵部隊，並協助追蹤敵人。台灣面臨的主要挑戰是無法大規模生產非中國製造的商業無人機。
- 美國：主要通過擊沉解放軍艦船、進行空戰、拒止中國的空中和海上控制、打擊中國本土目標來支持台灣。
Summary:
Drones have not changed modern warfare yet, but they provide an evolution for combat. In a Taiwan Strait conflict scenario, the US, Taiwan, and China may use drones intensively to close kill chains. The Ukrainian Crisis presents an outlook for drone warfare. Although the Ukrainians innovated and adapted drones in their warfighting, Russia outpaced the production of drones, which could be a turning point in the war. Using case studies on Libya, Nagarno-Karabakh, and Ukraine, this report analyzes the possible drone warfare scenarios in the Indo-Pacific, its challenges for the US, and recommendations for the US and Taiwan.
The Challenges for the US in the Indo-Pacific
The Challenges for the US in the Indo-Pacific
- The US currently has few suitable drones that it could use effectively in the Indo-Pacific theater. Most US or allied bases are located more than 500 miles or even thousands of miles from Taiwan. Therefore, it is difficult for the US to launch and maintain drone operations compared to China.
- Although the US could operate long-range drones, they are relatively costly. With China's industrial capacity, it could attack Taiwan with affordable drones with ease.
Different Operational Concepts
- China: China has a large and growing fleet of drones. China would utilize drones to suppress or destroy Taiwan's defense systems, support invasion forces, assist main forces' ISR operations, and conduct anti-submarine warfare.
- Taiwan: Taiwan would primarily use drones for its defenses, mainly for counter-maritime forces, stopping invasion forces, and assisting primary systems in tracking enemies. The main challenge for Taiwan is the inability to mass produce non-Chinese commercial drones.
- The US: The US mainly supports Taiwan by sinking PLA ships, conducting aerial combat, denying China's aerial and sea control, or striking mainland targets.