作者/Author(s): Sarang Shidore 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 07/04/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、金磚五國、國際秩序


摘要：
自 2009 年金磚五國成立以來，東南亞一直選擇迴避加入該集團或未達加入標準。然而隨著金磚國家擴展，馬來西亞和泰國等皆宣布有意加入，金磚國家方面也放出消息表示可能接受兩國的申請。雖然許多學者將金磚國家的擴展視為對西方不滿的訊號，但應該將其視為中國和俄羅斯在集團中的影響力減弱，以及成員國的避險意圖。 
  • 金磚國家通常被視為代表發展中國家的俱樂部，但事實上它是一個由全球東方和南方國家組成的聯盟，有著各自特定的利益。 
  • 俄羅斯、中國和伊朗與美國在地緣政治上存在競爭關係，它們將該集團視為西方國際秩序的制衡者和替代者。 
  • 然而對於其他成員來說，加入金磚國家是一種繞過美國主導的國際體系束縛，並對不確定的未來世界秩序進行避險的手段。 
  • 發展中國家對加入金磚國家的日益興趣，比起其他可能性，最有可能的就是此做法符合其利益。全球南方是一個高度多樣化的群體，在文化、宗教以及與友中友美程度上各有不同。
  • 金磚國家為東協國家等成員提供了一個平台，讓他們能夠在國際問題上發表意見，肯定其主權原則，強化經濟開放的概念，獲得緊急金融安排，規避美國的次級制裁。 
  • 然而，金磚國家基於共識的決策機制將稀釋大國的影響力，加上東協國家嚴格遵守主權，對全球秩序兩極化堅持避險策略，金磚國家的擴展對中國和俄羅斯而言可能並非好事。 
Summary: 
Since the inception of BRICS in 2009, South East Asia has been under the radar or shied away from joining the bloc. However, since BRICS expanded to include more members, Malaysia and Thailand declared their interest in joining the group, which is likely to be accepted. Although many scholars justify the BRICS's expansion as a signal of dissatisfaction with the West, it should be viewed as a reduced Chinese and Russian influence in the bloc and the members' intent for hedging. 
  • BRICS is often described as a club representing developing countries but in fact, it is a coalition of Global East and South countries with their specific interests. 
  • Russia, China, and Iran, who were engaged in geopolitical rivalry with the US, view the bloc as a counterbalance and alternative to the Western international order. 
  • However, for other members, joining BRICS is a means to circumvent the shackles of the US-led international system and hedge against the uncertain future world order. 
  • The growing interest from developing countries in joining BRICS should be viewed as self-interest more than any other possibilities. The Global South is a highly diversified community, varying in culture, religion, and the degree of amity with the US or China. 
  • BRICS allows members, especially ASEAN countries, to have a platform to voice their aspirations on international issues, affirm their sovereignty principle, reinforce the concept of economic openness, access to emergency financial arrangements, and avoid the US secondary sanctions. 
  • Yet, BRICS expansion may not be a win for China and Russia due to BRICS's consensus-based decision-making mechanism that would dilute the great powers' influence, ASEAN countries' strict adherence to sovereignty, and insistence on hedging against the polarization of the global order. 
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