作者/Author(s): Bonnie S. Glaser and Bonny Lin
網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 07/02/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、軍事、兩岸事務

摘要：
兩岸緊張局勢的升級不可避免地讓美國尋求維護台海和平與穩定的過程中陷入困境。
  • 中國希望美國能減少對台灣的軍事和外交支持，並抑制賴清德破壞台海穩定的行為。然而，中國對台灣變得更加具有攻擊性，挑戰領海管轄權。鑑於中國的敵意和兩黨對台灣的強烈支持，美國不會停止援助台灣。
  • 台灣希望美國投入更多精力反制中國的侵略和脅迫，但美國目前僅專注於防止台灣遭到入侵，未能回應台灣的請求。不管是台灣還是其他盟國，美國都不希望每天受到來自中國的挑釁。
  • 如果兩岸局勢繼續惡化，中國可能會加大對台灣和美國的敵意，阻礙任何美國修復美中關係的努力，制裁美國公司，並加強對俄羅斯的支持。
  • 然而中國必須考量升級的利弊，必不會輕舉妄動。因此美國可以假設中國會避免在台海對抗，但不確定中國的想法何時會改變。美國需要仔細管理與中國大陸和台灣的關係，密切關注兩岸動態。
  • 雖然美國祝賀賴清德的就職，但並未對其演說發表評論，並批評了中國的軍事演習。
  • 美國必須付出更多努力，採取積極措施，通過加強台灣的嚇阻能力，鼓勵台灣在與中國保持積極外交的同時，優先考慮自衛和應變能力，維護台海的和平與穩定。美國應支持任何恢復兩岸對話的努力，防止破壞台海穩定的錯誤溝通和誤判。
Summary:
The elevation of cross-strait tension inevitably puts the US in a tough spot as it seeks to preserve peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
  • China hopes the US could reduce its military and diplomatic support for Taiwan and inhibit Lai from destabilizing the Taiwan Strait. However, China has become more aggressive against Taiwan by challenging its jurisdiction over territorial waters. Given Chinese hostility and strong bipartisan support for Taiwan, the US will not stop backing Taiwan.
  • Taiwan wants the US to put in more effort in countering China's aggression and coercion, but the US currently only focuses on preventing a Taiwan invasion without addressing Taiwan's requests. The US does not want to devote to daily provocations from China, regardless of Taiwan or other allies.
  • If the cross-strait condition continues to deteriorate, China may increase its hostility toward Taiwan and the US, impede any US effort to repair US-China relations, sanction US companies, and enhance its support for Russia.
  • However, China must consider the benefits and costs of escalation and will not act recklessly. Therefore, the US could assume China would avoid confrontation in the Taiwan Strait, but it is uncertain when the trajectory would change. The US would need to manage its relations with China and Taiwan carefully by watching the cross-strait dynamics.
  • Although the US congratulated Lai's inauguration, it did not comment on his speech and criticized China's military drills.
  • The US must put in more effort and take proactive measures to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait by bolstering Taiwan's deterrence capabilities and encouraging Taiwan to prioritize self-defense and resilience while maintaining active diplomacy with China. The US should support any effort to resume Taiwan-China dialogues to prevent miscommunications and miscalculations that would destabilize the Taiwan Strait.
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