作者/Author(s): Bonnie S. Glaser and Bonny Lin
網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs
日期/Date: 07/02/2024
關鍵字/Keywords: Diplomacy, Military, Cross-Strait Issues外交、軍事、兩岸事務

摘要：
賴清德在就職演說中聲稱兩岸互不隸屬，但承諾不會挑釁北京政府或改變兩岸現狀，明確地表達了賴清德對兩岸現狀的傾向，但北京並不買帳，大力批評賴清德，中並在台灣周邊進行大規模封鎖演習，以示不滿。美國應該擔憂兩岸之間缺乏互信，幫助台灣提高嚇阻能力，同時與中國保持外交接觸，減少緊張局勢和誤解。 

讀懂潛台詞 
  • 中國非常關注台灣總統的就職演說，以評估和制定其兩岸政策。中國只會接受認同台灣是中國一部分的立場，但台灣公眾與各政黨對中國的態度皆日益消極。結果中國只能更加積極地施壓台灣接受其官方立場。
  • 與前任相比，賴清德在就職演說中的平和態度有所減弱。他避免提及管理兩岸事務的基石「92 共識」，並反覆強調台灣是一個獨立的國家。
  • 賴清德的演說激怒了北京，他們視其為新兩國論的公開聲明，同時懷疑賴清德維護兩岸現狀、不挑釁北京的承諾。
  • 作為報復，北京發動了封鎖演習，威脅增加軍事演習次數，對台灣及其外交盟友進入中國市場的商品徵收關稅，對親台獨分子處以死刑，並加深與反對派的聯繫，以表明其對台灣政治的不滿和干預能力。
  • 對此賴清德譴責北京破壞台海現狀，認為中國試圖吞併台灣，台北還加強了對中國的旅行警告，建議台灣人非必要不應前往中國。
Summary:
In his inauguration speech, Lai Ching-te asserted that Taiwan and China are separate entities but promised not to provoke the Beijing government or change the cross-strait status quo. Lai's speech signifies a clarity over his preference for cross-strait status, but Beijing did not buy it as it does not conform to its preference. In response, China criticized Lai and conducted a large-scale blockade exercise around Taiwan to signify its displeasure. The US should be worried about the lack of rapport between China and Taiwan and help Taiwan increase its deterrence ability while maintaining diplomatic contacts with China to reduce tensions and misunderstandings.

Reading Between the Lines
  • China pays much attention to inaugural speeches by Taiwanese presidents to evaluate and devise their cross-strait policies. China would only accept positions that state Taiwan is part of China, but the Taiwanese public opinion, regardless of any political parties, is increasingly negative towards China. As a result, China is more assertive in pressuring the Taiwanese to accept its official stance.
  • Compared to his predecessor, Lai was less pacifying in his inaugural speech. He avoided mentioning the 92 consensus, a cornerstone for managing cross-strait affairs, and repeatedly stressed Taiwan as a distinct country.
  • Lai's speech infuriates Beijing as it views the speech as a public statement of a new two-state theory. Beijing also doubts Lai's promises to preserve the cross-strait status quo and not provoke Beijing.
  • In retaliation, Beijing launched a blockade exercise, threatened to increase the number of military drills, imposed tariffs on Taiwanese and its diplomatic allies' goods into the Chinese market, introduced death penalties to pro-Taiwanese independence activists, and deepened ties with DPP's opposition to signal its dissatisfaction and ability to intervene in Taiwanese politics.
  • Lai responded by castigating Beijing for destroying the Taiwan Strait status quo and denounced China for trying to annex Taiwan. Taipei also heightened its travel warning for China and advised Taiwanese to avoid unnecessary travel to China.
回上層