作者/Author(s): Lauren Barney and Aaron Glasserman 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 06/13/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交


摘要：

減少混亂，增加控制 

  • 不少西方專家認為中國正從紅海的混亂局勢中受益。他們研判中國故意製造混亂使美國分心，並指出西方主導的國際秩序的弱點。
  • 確實，中國作為一個不滿於美國領導地位的新興大國，極可能從美國的軍事干預中袖手旁觀並獲益。然而，如果中東的衝突持續升高或演變成大規模戰爭，將會損害中國在中東的貿易和經濟利益。
  • 中國相信權力轉移理論，希望過去十年的局勢有利於將中國推升佔據全球領導地位。然而，中國也清楚地知道，在達到巔峰前也必須持續應對後美國時代的挑戰。因此，中國會減少其對全球不穩定的暴露，提高生存和適應的能力。
  • 中國的外交政策行動也符合上述論點。一帶一路倡議可以減輕危險，免受地緣政治事件或氣候變化的影響。此外，中國也積極主動地加強與美國對手和合作夥伴的關係。

戰略思考 

  • 胡塞武裝的襲擊不會很快就停止。不少觀察家也指出，襲擊區域可能會擴大。
  • 中國明白這些襲擊會損害其區域利益，但他們無法做出可信的軍事回應，因此只能束手無策。即使中國承諾進行軍事干預，也需要填補西方留下的領導空白。
  • 在看到美國的力量即將衰落後，中國會採取更簡單的方法，促成簡單的外交談判，或抓住機會擴大貿易關係，確保糧食和能源供應，增強地區影響力。
 

Summary: 

Less Chaos, More Control

  • Some Western experts suggest China is benefiting from the chaotic Red Sea. These experts argue China sowed chaos to keep the US occupied and expose the weaknesses of the Western-led international order.
  • Indeed, China is a rising power dissatisfied with the US leadership and may gain from staying on the sidelines of US military interventions. However, if the conflict in the Middle East continues or spirals into a greater war, it would harm China's trade and economic interests in the Middle East.
  • China believes in the power transition theory and expects the situation over the past decade has favored China's ascendency to global leadership. However, China is clear that to reach the pinnacle, it must address the challenges of a post-US cycle. Therefore, China would lessen its exposure to global instability and increase its capabilities to survive and adapt.
  • China's foreign policy actions support the arguments above. The Belt and Road Initiative could mitigate dangers and insulate China from geopolitical incidents or climate change. Further, China proactively bolsters its relations with US adversaries and partners.

Strategic Thinking 

  • It is unlikely the Houthi attacks will stop soon. Some observers also noted that the area of attacks may expand. 
  • China understands the attacks undermine its regional interests, but its hands are tied because it could not commit a credible military response. Even if China commits to military intervention, it would need to fill the leadership gap left by the West.
    China would pursue the easier course after viewing the imminent decline of US power by facilitating simple diplomatic talks or diving into opportunities to expand its trade relations, secure its food and energy supplies, and enhance its regional influence. 
     
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