作者/Author(s): Eric Ciaramella 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦


摘要：
雖然烏克蘭強調加入北約是確保生存和阻止俄羅斯未來攻擊的唯一途徑，但其他北約成員國卻不願讓基輔加入它們的行列。因此，美國及其盟國必須有一個替代方案來保證烏克蘭的自衛能力。 
  • 目前，烏克蘭已簽署了幾項不具約束力的雙邊安全協議，表示西方對烏克蘭安全的長期保證。然而基輔及其夥伴可以將這些協議轉變為一個連貫的長期安全安排。 
  • 烏克蘭及其合作夥伴應共同制定烏克蘭未來軍事前景概念，更明確規劃烏克蘭軍隊的硬體和訓練需求。 
  • 該聯盟須設立專門基金，確保烏克蘭國防的長期資金。資金應包含激勵烏克蘭和西方國防公司在本土生產，並促進烏克蘭國防工業基礎的發展。 
  • 烏克蘭應與合作夥伴討論應對俄羅斯未來攻擊的措施，確保能採取迅速果斷的行動。北約成員也需要商量是否在必要時部署部隊，以確保烏克蘭安全的可能性。 
  • 無論選舉結果如何，美國及其盟國都應為烏克蘭的防務做出長期、可信的承諾。 
普丁仍然認為，只要他堅持下去就能贏得戰爭。雖然西方向烏克蘭提供了新的軍事援助，但他不需要妥協。因此烏克蘭必須透過巧妙的外交手段來解決戰爭。無論使用軍事還是外交手段，烏克蘭都可能需要很長時間才能收復失地。因此西方國家必須繼續保障烏克蘭的安全，增強烏克蘭人的信心，有效嚇阻俄羅斯領導人。  
 
Summary: 
Although Ukraine emphasized joining NATO is the only way to ensure survival and deter future Russian attacks, other NATO members are reluctant to let Kyiv join their ranks. Therefore, the US and its allies must have an alternative that guarantees Ukraine the ability for self-defense. 
  • As of now, Ukraine has several non-binding bilateral security agreements that signal long-term Western assurance for Ukraine's security. However, Kyiv and its partners could turn these agreements into a coherent long-term security arrangement. 
  • Ukraine and its partners should co-develop a concept of Ukraine's future military outlook that identifies the hardware and training requirements of the Ukrainian Army. 
  • The coalition also should have a dedicated fund that ensures long-term funding for Ukraine's defense. The funding should also include incentives for Ukrainian and Western defense companies to pursue domestic production and foster Ukraine's defense industrial base. 
  • Ukraine should discuss with its partners the measures for a future Russian attack that ensure swift and decisive actions could be taken. NATO members also need to explore the possibility of deploying their forces whenever necessary to assure Ukraine. 
  • The US and its allies should codify long-term and credible commitment to Ukraine's defense regardless of the outcomes of electoral cycles.  
Putin still believes he could win the war as long as he persists and does not need to compromise despite new Western military aid to Ukraine. Therefore, delicate diplomacy is necessary to settle the war. Further, Ukraine may take a long time to regain its lost territories regardless of using military or diplomacy. Hence, the West must continue guaranteeing Ukraine's security to instill confidence among Ukrainians and deter the Russian leadership. 
 
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