作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew P. Funiaole, Samantha Lu, and Truly Tinsley 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies 

日期/Date: 06/05/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords:  防衛、灰色地帶侵略 


摘要：
中國實施隔離戰術的優勢 
  • 隔離行動將涉及海警、海上民兵和軍事部隊的後勤和聯合指揮挑戰。中國擁有龐大武裝力量，可以有效執行隔離行動。
  • 中國海警是世界上規模最大的海岸警衛單位，其部分艦艇配備了軍用級別的武器，並由海事局（MSA）提供支援。 
  • 中國的海上民兵也可能偽裝成平民漁民協助海上行動，讓其他國家政府很難反應。 
  • 解放軍海軍的數量和實力遠超過台灣。 
  • 由於兩岸距離很近，中國只需從沿海部署部隊，即可控制台灣最重要的航運港口交通。
兩種隔離情景： 
  • 情景一：使用執法力量對台灣港口進行有限的海上隔離，以達成有限但重要的目標。 
  1. 中國將調動海警、海事局和海上民兵，對駛入台灣港口（尤其是高雄港）的船隻進行臨時海關檢查。 
  2. 中國船隻將侵入台灣的24海浬邊界，甚至偶爾入侵到12海浬邊界，以削弱台灣的主權聲索。 
  3. 中國的海上民兵將主要進行情報、監視和偵察（ISR)行動，並干擾台灣的海上意識。 
  4. 解放軍海軍將在遠處包圍台灣，做執法單位的靠山，並提供遠處 ISR ，擴大中國的海上活動範圍。 
  5. 只需大約3/4的航運公司遵守其海關規則，且不引發其他國家的重大報復，中國即可聲稱取得成功，並在台灣周圍建立新的常態。
  • 情景二：全面海上隔離，要求船舶在進入台灣前先行通知中國當局。
  1. 中國將宣布對台灣實施隔離戰術，並切到領海邊界，向全球展示中國在台灣管轄範圍內行使影響力的決心和能力。
  2. 這將比情景一的規模更大，時間更長，中國甚至會騷擾懸掛台灣國旗的船隻。雖然行動規模很大，但中國仍有足夠的能力輪換部隊。 
  3. 中國將在港口扣押台灣以及其密切夥伴的船隻，要求他們填寫相關文件才能繼續前往台灣。 
Summary: 
China's Advantages of Using Quarantine 
  • A quarantine would involve logistical and joint command challenges of the Coast Guard, maritime militia, and military forces. However, China can enforce a quarantine effectively due to its vast forces. 
  • The Chinese Coast Guard is the largest in the world with some of its vessels carrying military-grade weapons and is supported by the Maritime Safety Administration (MSA). 
  • China's maritime militia, disguised as civilian fishermen, could assist Chinese maritime operations and complicate the response of other governments. 
  • The PLA Navy also outnumbers and outperforms Taiwan. 
  • Due to proximity, China would only need to deploy forces from its coast and control the traffic of Taiwan's most critical shipping ports. 
Two Scenarios of Quarantine: 
  • Scenario One: Limited maritime quarantine of Taiwan's port using law enforcement forces to achieve limited but significant objectives. ​​​​​​​
  1. China would mobilize its Coast Guards, the MSA, and maritime militia to conduct improvised customs inspections on ships heading into Taiwan's ports, especially the Kaoshiung Port. 
  2. Chinese ships would intrude Taiwan's 24-nautical-mile boundary and occasionally reach the 12-nautical-mile boundary to delegitimize Taiwan's sovereignty claims. 
  3. China's maritime militia would primarily conduct ISR operations and confuse Taiwan's maritime awareness. 
  4. The PLA Navy would support the law enforcement agencies to surround Taiwan from a distance to provide ISR and extend China's maritime awareness. 
  5. China would only need around 3/4 of shipping companies to abide by Chinese customs rules and claim little retaliation from other countries to claim success. Then, China could impose a new normal around Taiwan.
  • Scenario Two: A full-scale maritime quarantine that mandates ships to advance notice to Chinese authorities before entering Taiwan. 
  1. China would announce a quarantine on Taiwan, matching with its territorial boundaries. The aim is to demonstrate China's determination and capabilities to exercise its influence within Taipei's jurisdiction. 
  2. The scale would be much larger and longer than Scenario One and focused on harassing Taiwan-flagged ships. Despite the scale, China would have sufficient capacity to rotate its forces. 
  3. China would impound Taiwanese or its close partners' ships at Chinese ports and necessitate them to fill in appropriate paperwork to proceed to Taiwan.
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