作者/Author(s): Bonny Lin, Brian Hart, Matthew P. Funiaole, Samantha Lu, and Truly Tinsley 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic & International Studies 

日期/Date: 06/05/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防衛、灰色地帶侵略

摘要：

近期中國對台灣的敵意不斷增長，並利用軍事演習和海事執法行動來嚇阻台灣。這些行動表明，北京可能會採取更大膽的措施，或通過灰色地帶封鎖來逼迫台灣。 

隔離與封鎖 

  • 中國偶爾會輪流使用隔離與封鎖兩種方式，但隔離更像是一種由軍隊支持的執法行動，目的是控制海上或空中交通，但又低於武裝衝突的門檻。
  • 中國對台灣採取隔離行動，主要目的是控制特定物品（如美國武器）與台灣的海空貿易。然而，這可能會引發美國報復。
  • 另一個目標是迫使國際公司和其他政府接受中國對台灣的管轄權。
  • 中國一定會改變與台灣相關的國內貿易和交通法規，或根據現行法規加強對台灣的執法。 
  • 相比之下，封鎖是一項由軍隊主導，執法機構或海上民兵輔助支持的行動，涉及對台灣周邊水域的動態攻擊或布雷。原則上，封鎖比隔離層級更高，也更可能會引起對方反擊。
  • 雖然中國沒有隔離行動的標準作法，但他們已經進行幾次演習，暗示將使用執法行動對通往台灣的交通進行控制，混亂台灣的海洋環境。 
對台灣採取隔離戰術的原因 
  • 中國可以加強對台灣海上和空中交通的政治和行政控制，強化其對台灣的主權聲索，減弱台灣政府的治理能力與人民對軍隊和海巡的信心。 
  • 中國可以給台灣造成高經濟成本，有效干涉台灣內政。
  • 中國可以輕鬆調整隔離的程度，或在必要時停止，以控制衝突升級，在台灣周圍建立新的常態。 
  • 中國可以毫不費力地透過執法行動破壞台灣貿易。 
  • 中國使用海警和海上民兵的做法，會讓台灣、美國及其合作夥伴行動更加複雜化。 
Summary: 
China has been increasingly hostile toward Taiwan recently by ramping up military exercises and maritime law enforcement operations to scare the Taiwanese. These actions suggest Beijing would take bolder steps to coerce Taiwan by gray zone quarantine of the island.  
Quarantine vs. Blockade 
  • Although quarantine is occasionally used interchangeably with a blockade, quarantine is more of a law enforcement operation supported by the military to control maritime or air traffic below the limit of an armed conflict. 
  • The main objective of a Chinese quarantine of Taiwan is to exert its control over Taiwan's maritime and air trade by targetting specific goods such as US weapons. Nevertheless, it may provoke retaliation from the US. 
  • Another goal is to compel international companies and other governments to accept China's jurisdiction over Taiwan. 
  • China must change its domestic trade and traffic regulations relating to Taiwan or step up law enforcement against Taiwan as per current legislation. 
  • A blockade, in contrast, is a military-led operation supported by law enforcement agencies or maritime militia that involves kinetic attacks or mining of waters around Taiwan. In principle, it is more escalatory than a quarantine and may invite counterattacks. 
  • Although there is no public doctrine regarding the use of quarantine, China conducted several exercises that hinted at using law enforcement operations to assert dominance over traffic to Taiwan and muddle Taiwan's maritime environment. 
Reasons for Quarantining Taiwan 
  • China could impose greater political and administrative control over Taiwan's maritime and air traffic, thus reinforcing its sovereignty claim over Taiwan, reducing Taiwanese ability to govern, and corroding Taiwanese confidence in its military and coast guard. 
  • China could interfere in Taiwan's domestic politics by inflicting high economic costs on Taiwan. 
  • China could easily limit the degree of quarantine or stop it whenever necessary to control conflict escalation and enact a new normal around Taiwan. 
  • China could achieve its aim of disrupting Taiwan's trade effortlessly through law enforcement. 
  • Using coast guards and maritime militia complicates the actions of Taiwan, the US, and their partners. 

 
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