作者/Author(s): Andriy Zagorodnyuk and Eliot A. Cohen 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords:軍事、戰略 


摘要：
雖然美國最後決定延長對烏克蘭的軍事援助，但無法幫助烏克蘭決定戰爭結果。烏克蘭不僅需要軍事援助，還需要一個勝利方程式，確保收復失地，解救被俘公民，有效防止俄羅斯再次發動戰爭。雖然過程困難重重，但絕對比跟普丁談判來的更現實。 
  • 西方在援助烏克蘭問題上優柔寡斷，缺乏明確目標，是導致長時間衝突的部分原因。此外俄羅斯已進入戰時經濟，可以憑藉強大的火力奪取一些領土。 
  • 然而，俄羅斯也有關鍵的弱點。俄羅斯基於制裁問題，無法迅速補充損失的裝備，其系統已經過時，無法與西方型號相比，而且戰時持續損失，其人口和經濟可能無法長期支撐戰爭。如果烏克蘭能在一年內削弱俄羅斯的地位和決心，那就可以發動反擊，奪回重要的領土。
  • 烏克蘭和西方應加強針對俄羅斯的經濟、資訊和政治行動，削弱公眾對戰爭的支持。 
  • 烏克蘭已開始降低徵兵年齡，取消兵役豁免，以應對戰場人力挑戰。西方可以提供訓練和持續供應物資，幫助烏克蘭保持作戰能力。 
  • 西方可以與烏克蘭的國防工業合作，發揮其軍事潛力，擊敗俄羅斯，並阻止未來的侵略行為。 
  • 西方擔心如果他們允許烏克蘭打擊俄羅斯縱深目標，會引發核衝突升級。核衝突升級是一把雙刃劍，因為西方可以做出類似的反應，而中國也會阻止普丁貿然升級核武危機。  
Summary: 
Although the US finally decided to extend military aid to Ukraine, it cannot help Ukraine to shape the outcome of the war. Ukraine not only needs military assistance, but it also needs a theory of victory that ensures Ukraine can regain its lost territories, free captured citizens, and prevent Russia from launching another war. Despite its difficulties, it is a more realistic strategy than a negotiated settlement with Putin. 
  • The West indecisiveness in aiding Ukraine and lack of clear objectives partially explain the prolonged conflict. Further, since Russia had moved into a wartime economy, it could make several territorial gains with high firepower. 
  • However, Russia has critical weaknesses. It could not replace its lost equipment quickly due to sanctions, its systems are outdated and no match to Western models, and its demography and economy may not sustain the war for a long time due to constant losses. If Ukraine could weaken Russia's position and resolve for around one year, then Ukraine could launch counteroffensives to regain important terrains. 
  • Ukraine and the West should intensify their economic, information, and political operations against Russia to undermine public support for the war. 
  • Ukraine has started to improve to meet the challenges by lowering the conscription age and reverting military service exemptions. The West could help by providing training and a continuous materiel supply to allow Ukraine to maintain its operations. 
  • The West could cooperate with Ukraine's defense industry to fulfill its military potential, defeat Russia, and deter future aggression. 
  • The West feared allowing Ukraine to strike deep Russian targets would provoke a nuclear escalation. However, nuclear escalation is a double-edged sword because the West could respond similarly and China would also stop Putin from a nuclear escalation.  
 
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