臺灣是否該嘗試複製澤倫斯基的劇本？ (Part 2)

作者/Author(s): Jason Vogt, Nina Kollars, and Michael Poznansky 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 05/15/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 資訊戰

摘要：

更脆弱的數位基礎設施

• 在資訊戰中，維持可靠的通訊至關重要。俄羅斯在烏克蘭戰果有限，是因為私營公司幫助烏克蘭抵禦了俄羅斯的毀滅性網路攻擊，有效減緩烏克蘭電信基礎設施受損程度。
• 台灣毗鄰中國大陸，非常容易受到全面的數位孤立。中國可能會操作其網路樞紐，或切斷台灣的海底電纜。 
• 台灣大部分的關鍵數位通訊基礎設施都位於北部，極其容易受到中國的物理打擊。 
• 而且台灣的電力嚴重依賴化石燃料，中國可以實施海上封鎖，阻止台灣進口能源。 
• 台灣已經開始通過與衛星導航系統供應商合作、減少對化石燃料的依賴和加強網路安全，提高數位基礎設施和能源韌性。然而，台灣的脆弱性顯而易見，在兩岸衝突期間，台灣大部分地區很可能被斷網。 

• 在澤倫斯基的劇本中，有效的傳訊者和訊息是另外兩個關鍵因素。 
• 澤倫斯基是一個很具說服力的演講家，他向當地和國內受眾有效傳達了烏克蘭的困境和決心。而且烏克蘭的優勢在於它是聯合國承認的國家，是歐洲的一部分，鄰近北約國家。烏克蘭的主權沒有模糊性，對北約的威脅也很明確，這讓澤倫斯基能夠很輕鬆就塑造出吸引西方決定支持烏克蘭的說法。 
• 對台灣來說，誰將在危機期間領導台灣是未知的，他是否能夠獲得國際社會的同情與支持則是另個疑問。此外，雖然台灣擁有獨立的政治實體，但其主權地位仍然模糊。
• 台灣合作夥伴對於保衛台灣的立場也不明確，中國可能會利用這一點在盟友之間製造分歧，在台灣很可能需要直接軍事干預的情況下更是如此。 
• 台灣可以將兩岸衝突塑造成美國及其地區夥伴的核心安全議題，塑造更有吸引力的資訊，打動那些被中國侵略騷擾的受害者。 

• It is critical to maintain access to reliable communications in an information campaign. Russia had limited success in Ukraine because private companies helped Ukraine thwart Russia's destructive cyberattacks and mitigated the damages to Ukraine's telecommunications infrastructure. 
• Taiwan, located near China's mainland, is highly prone to comprehensive digital isolation. China could exploit Taiwan's networks that pass through its hubs or sever Taiwan's undersea cables. 
• Most of Taiwan's critical digital communication infrastructure is based in Northern Taiwan, which is vulnerable to Chinese kinetic attacks. 
• As Taiwan relies heavily on fossil fuels for electricity, China could also implement a maritime blockade to impede Taiwan's access to energy. 
• Taiwan already started to improve the resiliency of its digital infrastructure and energy grid by cooperating with satellite constellation providers, reducing Taiwan's reliance on fossil fuels, and enhancing cybersecurity. However, Taiwan's vulnerability is palpable and it is likely a large part of the island would be isolated from the digital realm during a conflict. 

• An effective messenger and message are two other critical components of Zelensky's playbook. 
• Zelensky is an effective communicator who delivered Ukraine's predicaments and determination effectively to local and domestic audiences. However, Ukraine has the advantages of being a UN-recognized state, part of Europe, and near a NATO country. Ukraine's lack of sovereignty ambiguity and clear threats to NATO allowed Zelensky to shape discourses that are appealing to the West. 
• In the case of Taiwan, it would be hard to predict who will lead Taiwan during the crisis or whether that individual could gain sympathy from international audiences. Further, Taiwan's sovereignty is ambiguous despite having an independent political entity to govern.  
• The position of Taiwanese partners in defending Taiwan is also ambiguous and China may have leverage in driving a wedge between these allies, especially when Taiwan would most likely require a risky direct military intervention. 
• Taiwan could send appealing messages by framing the issue as the core security of the US and its regional partners, especially those who were victims of Chinese aggression.