作者/Author(s): Isaac Kardon and Jennifer Kavanagh 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 灰色地帶戰爭、防禦


摘要：
雖然美國和台灣正在積極準備應對中國在2027年可能發動的入侵，但這些措施無法對抗中國利用執法或非致命手段擴大控制台灣的脅迫行為。位了對抗中國的灰色地帶脅迫，台灣和美國應組件緩衝區，以保護台灣的空域、水域和經濟。
  • 台灣正在提升態勢感測能力來應對中國的不合理侵擾，台灣應更積極對抗中國海警和海上民兵。
  • 台灣必須強化、擴展和多樣化其通訊系統，培養更多熟練的網路防禦人員，以防禦對其訊息和網陸的任何攻擊。 
  • 雖然美國有分配防禦援助至印太地區，但尚未訂立明確的使用計劃。美國應利用部分資金來提升台灣的空中和海上情報、監視和偵察能力，或擴展台灣的空中、海上和水面無人機隊。美國也應擴大美國海岸警衛隊在台灣海峽及其周邊巡邏的角色。 
  • 美國可以與海運和空運等私營公司協調，增強台灣的經濟韌性，評估台灣潛在的脆弱性，共享早期預警指標，制定應急計劃，確保台灣與全球市場的連結。 
Summary: 
Although the US and Taiwan are actively preparing for the possibility of a Chinese invasion in 2027, those measures would not counter China's coercive practices to expand control over Taiwan through law enforcement or non-lethal tactics. To counter Chinese gray-zone coercion, Taiwan and the US should create a buffer zone that protects Taiwan's airspace, waters, and economy. 
  • Since Taiwan is upgrading its domain-awareness capabilities, it could utilize these capabilities in responding to unreasonable Chinese incursions. Taiwan should also push the Chinese coast guard and maritime militia more aggressively. 
  • Taiwan must reinforce, expand, and diversify its communication systems and train more skilled cyber defense personnel to defend against any attacks on its information and internet networks. 
  • Although the US allocated defense aid to the Indo-Pacific, it does not have a clear plan on how to use it. The US should use some of the funds to improve Taiwan's aerial and maritime intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities or expand Taiwan's fleet of air, sea, and surface unmanned drones. The US should also expand the role of the US Coast Guard to patrol in and around the Taiwan Strait. 
  • To bolster Taiwan's economic resilience, the US should coordinate with the private sector, especially air and maritime logistics companies. The US government and private companies could assess the potential vulnerabilities, share early warning indicators, and create contingency plans to ensure Taiwan's continuous access to global markets. 
 
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