作者/Author(s): Isaac Kardon and Jennifer Kavanagh 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 灰色地帶戰爭、防禦

摘要：

自從菲利普·戴維森上將預測中國可能於 2027 年入侵台灣後，美國和台灣都依據這一預測改革國防政策。中國不斷強調他們必定會統一台灣，並且窮盡所有手段與灰色地帶脅迫，力求達到目的。雖然美國可以做好準備協防台灣，阻止中國的軍事入侵，但美國也必須反擊中國的灰色地帶戰術，防止台灣在沒有抵抗的情況下直接屈服。   

  • 中國在空域、海域和資訊領域採用非常規和非致命手段騷擾其他國家行為體，並作為在爭議領土行使管轄權行動的一部分。
  • 台灣日益成為中國灰色地帶脅迫活動的目標，中國的灰色地帶行動不應被低估為兩棲入侵的前奏而已。隨著中國越來越頻繁使用灰色地帶戰略，其已經成為中國主要、耐心且長期的策略，目的是在不使用武力的情況下迫使台灣屈服。或許中國從俄羅斯未能迅速征服烏克蘭中吸取了教訓，選擇投資於更便宜且風險更低的手段來箝制台灣。 
  • 中國更有可能訴諸低風險、高報酬率的灰色地帶戰術，原因如下： 
  1. 習近平僅將兩岸統一與2049年實現國家復興的偉大目標聯繫在一起，但沒有明確統一的具體含義，這意味著中國可能會採取長期策略，將其時間表推延到「戴維森窗口期」之後。 
  2. 解放軍缺乏近期作戰經驗，因此讓人對他們能否進行聯合作戰缺乏信心。如果中國的灰色地帶威脅能夠擴大對台灣的有效控制，北京很可能會維持目前的行動。 
  3. 雖然灰色地帶戰術有其風險，但中國可以謹慎地選擇脅迫活動的時機，避免美國及其盟友的報復。 
  4. 此外，美國和台灣缺乏應對中國灰色地帶做法的非軍事海上力量。美國也缺乏有效的機制協調盟友應對中國灰色地帶脅迫。

Summary: 
Since Admiral Philip Davidson predicted that China would invade Taiwan by 2027, the US and Taiwan have reformed their defense policies based on this scenario. China constantly emphasized the inevitability of Taiwan unification and was using all means, especially gray-zone coercion, to achieve its ulterior aim. While the US could prepare and arm Taiwan to deter a Chinese military invasion, they must also counter Chinese gray-zone tactics to prevent Taiwan from succumbing without resistance.  
  • ​​​​​​​China has deployed non-conventional and non-lethal methods to harass other state actors in airspace, seas, and information domains as part of its operation to assert its jurisdiction over disputed territories. 
  • Taiwan is increasingly a target of Chinese gray-zone coercive activities. Chinese gray-zone campaigns should not be underestimated as a prelude to an amphibious invasion. Instead, due to its frequent use, it should be regarded as China's primary, patient, and long-term tactic to capitulate Taiwan without using force. Perhaps China learned from Russia's failure to quickly subjugate Ukraine and chose to invest in cheaper and less risky means to strangle Taiwan. 
  • China is more likely to resort to low-risk, high-reward gray-zone tactics because: ​​​​​​​
  1. Xi Jinping only linked Taiwan's unification with the wider goal of national rejuvenation by 2049 without clarifying the meaning of unification. It means that China may pursue a long-term strategy that pushes its timeline beyond the Davidson Window. 
  2. China is not confident that the PLA could conduct joint operations due to a lack of recent combat experience. If China's gray-zone coercion allows it to expand its effective control over Taiwan, Beijing would most likely maintain the current trajectory. 
  3. Although gray-zone tactics have their risks, China could carefully time its coercive activities to avoid retaliation from the US and its allies. 
  4. Further, the US and Taiwan lack the non-military maritime forces to deal with China's gray zone practices. The US also lacked an effective mechanism to coordinate with allies in countering China's gray-zone coercion.
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