只靠美國的援助無法真正拯救烏克蘭

作者/Author(s): Jack Watling 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/02/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交 

摘要：

雖然美國最終批准了對烏克蘭的額外軍事援助，但這仍不能保證烏克蘭的勝利或俄烏長久和平。烏克蘭及其合作夥伴必須與俄羅斯談判，才能真正結束戰爭迎向和平。 

• 自去年秋天以來，俄烏戰場面臨補給短缺和重大傷亡持續增加等問題，情況不斷惡化。在這種情況下俄羅斯仍快速地修訂其戰略，維持可用火炮數量優勢，穩步推進前線，甚至能威脅到烏克蘭關鍵樞紐，導致烏克蘭很難保衛自身營地，失去了有效反擊的能力。美國的援助可以紓解烏克蘭的狀況，但可能無法彌補烏克蘭已經喪失的作戰能力，烏克蘭將繼續丟失領土。 
• 美國的援助可以讓烏克蘭持續組建部隊和調動資源，但烏克蘭的時間可能不夠了，烏國可動員的人員數量充足，但缺乏有效的徵兵和培訓系統來組建部隊，他們需要重建和訓練額外的旅級部隊才能積極防禦，但俄羅斯已經擁有足夠的部隊在秋季後持續展開進攻。如果烏克蘭能從歐洲獲得更多補給，訓練出足夠數量的堅實軍隊，那將有希望在 2025 年前阻斷俄羅斯的攻勢，建立起穩定的前線。 
• 西方將繼續支持烏克蘭，但他們更希望透過談判來結束戰爭。西方想為烏克蘭爭取有意義的讓步，就必須抬出具威脅性的條件才能令俄羅斯妥協。俄國目前面臨關鍵系統損失、資金斷裂以及國內政治壓力，西方可能會加強針對俄羅斯的情報行動，以加劇其國內的不滿情緒。 
• 烏克蘭目前沒有足夠的談判地位來結束戰爭或確保持久和平。因此，烏克蘭的國際合作夥伴必須幫助烏國先下手為強，有效地嚇阻俄羅斯。 

• Ukraine's battlefield condition has worsened since last autumn due to supply shortages and suffering significant casualties. Despite being slow and also burdened with heavy losses, Russia revised its strategy and had a numerical advantage in available artillery over Ukraine, allowing it to advance steadily and gain key hubs that could threaten Ukraine. Consequently, Ukraine found it hard to defend its position or lost its ability to counterattack. The US aid will alleviate Ukraine's condition, but Ukraine may not repair its lost capabilities and will continue to lose its territories to Russia. 
• The US aid allows Ukraine to plan its force generation and resource mobilization, but time is not on Ukraine's side. Ukraine can mobilize enough people, but it lacks an effective recruitment and training system to prepare the forces. Ukraine also needs to rebuild and train additional brigades to mount an active defense, but Russia would have enough troops for subsequent offensives in the autumn. If Ukraine could secure additional supplies from Europe and train enough capable soldiers, it could blunt Russia's upcoming offensive and establish a stable frontline by 2025. 
• The West would continue to support Ukraine's cause, but ultimately, they would prefer to end the war by negotiating with Russia. To extract meaningful concessions for Ukraine, Russia must suffer threatening conditions. Russia currently faces losses of critical systems, an inability to secure funds, and domestic frustrations. The West could increase information operations against Russia to exacerbate its domestic grievances. 
• Ukraine currently does not have enough bargaining position to negotiate an end to the war or secure a lasting peace. Therefore, Ukraine's international partners must help Ukraine to make the first move and deter Russia convincingly.