作者/Author(s): Emily Kilcrease 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 05/07/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、制裁 


摘要：
制裁是美國國策的重要組成部分，也是中美衝突中的關鍵因素。雖然北京不斷挑釁，美國卻未作出回應，僅對少數中國企業和官員進行懲罰，或對中國實施有限的出口管制和關稅。美國的克制是合理的，若貿然採取更極端的措施，將推升美中之間的經濟戰爭和衝突。然而這也可能讓中國以為，即使它在印太地區煽動衝突或幫助美國的對手，美國也不會採取懲罰手段。美國及其盟友必須制定明確的制裁策略，最大程度地發揮對中國的影響力，推動中國繼續參與當前的國際金融體系、建立制裁威脅可信度、保護關鍵供應鏈和促進經濟彈性。

 

團結一致 

  • 美國對中國維持作戰能力的經濟影響力不大。然而，由於美國只會在發生衝突時才實施制裁，因此制裁既不能嚇阻中國，也不會損害中國的能力。
  • 美國極端限制中國採購與軍事有關的尖端技術，試圖限制和削弱解放軍的實力。然而，中國在推進軍事現代化方面沒有遇到太多障礙，因此全球軍事投射能力大幅增長，削弱美國在周邊地區的優勢。 
  • 此外有部分合作夥伴不願加入美國的出口管制制度，因此要真正遏制中國具有軍民兩用性質的商業技術增長很難。雖然這可能會在短期內阻礙中國獲取或生產尖端技術，但長期以後很難有效阻止中國。
  • 美國及其夥伴目前正在著手阻止中國獲取它們主導的關鍵技術。然而，他們很容易受到中國在其他供應鏈脆弱點施加的經濟壓力。
  • 此外，美國也很難阻止中國透過不同供應商獲取關鍵商品。雖然美國可以考慮制裁與中國有貿易往來的第三方國家，但這未必有效，中國可以繼續尋找替代品，而這也將損害美國與其他國家的關係。 
Summary: 
Sanctions are a crucial part of the US statecraft and would be a key feature in a US-China conflict. However, the US has been unresponsive despite repeated provocations from Beijing, only punishing a few Chinese firms and officials or imposing limited export control and tariffs on China. The US's restraint is justifiable as more extreme measures would mean an economic war and conflict escalation with China. Yet, China may presume the US would not punish it even if it incites conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region or helps US adversaries. Therefore, the US and its allies must formulate unambiguous sanction strategies that maximize their leverage over China, including keeping China in the current international finance system, building the credibility of the threat to impose sanctions, protecting critical supply chains, and fostering economic resilience. 

Lashed Together 
  • The US has a modest economic leverage over China's ability to sustain warfighting. However, since the US would only impose sanctions when there are active conflicts, sanctions do not deter China nor it harm China's capabilities. 
  • The US imposed extreme restrictions on China on the procurement of advanced technologies related to the military to limit and degrade the PLA's strength. However, China faces no obstacles in continuing its military modernization, thus increasing its global military projection and undermining the US's advantage within its proximity. 
  • Further, it is hard to curb China's commercial technology growth that has a dual-use nature, especially when some US partners are reluctant to join the export control regime. Although it may impede China's ability to procure or produce advanced technologies for a short period, it is unlikely it would stop China over the long term. 
  • The US and its partners are currently focusing on denying China from accessing chokepoint technologies that they dominate. However, they are prone to China's coercive economic pressure at other points of the supply chain.  
  • It is also difficult to block China's access to key commodities that are available from a diverse range of suppliers. Although the US could consider sanctioning third-party countries that trade with China, it is not effective because China could look for alternatives and it may also damage the US's relations with other countries. 
回上層