作者/Author(s): Derek Grossman 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: November 7, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Gray Zone Warfare, Alliance

摘要：

北京政府通過騷擾馬尼拉對第二托馬斯淺灘的補給任務，加強了在南海對菲律賓的灰色地帶侵略。如果中國繼續執行灰色地帶侵略，菲律賓可能會啟動美菲共同防禦條約，並邀請美軍介入第二托馬斯淺灘爭端。解放軍近期在該地區行動咄咄逼人，因為它有能力騷擾敵對船隻，並在附近的人工島上設立軍事前哨，獲得支持。美軍可能會選擇遏止中國在該地區的灰色地帶行動，但這也有機率迫使美中衝突升級。此外，雖然美國在釣魚臺列嶼(尖閣諸島)議題與日本達成共識，也有類似於菲律賓此次衝突的安排，但中國的灰色地帶行動並未減少。因此，美國可能會選擇向菲律賓提供軍事援助和培訓，同時就美菲安全條約內容向中國政府發出警告。 

 
中國的灰色地帶戰術 

  • 在中國對菲律賓霸凌行動增加後，美國政府不斷強調《美菲聯防條約》內容，其中包含攻擊菲律賓海岸警衛隊的行動。 
  • 雖然解放軍沒有攻擊菲律賓的軍事資產，但有意無意的灰色地帶行動，可能導致美菲兩國觸發《美菲聯防條約》，引發戰爭。 
  • 如果中國認為美國要同時協助烏克蘭和以色列會分心，那麼中國可能會升級灰色地帶行動，試探華盛頓的決心，並攻擊菲律賓在第二托馬斯淺灘的馬德雷山脈號。 
潛在場景 
  • 目前的美菲同盟關係，是自建立以來最健康的同盟。因此，美國將繼續履行美菲聯防條約。如果中國繼續咄咄逼人，美國可能會援引該條約。 
  • 中國可能會升級其灰色地帶行動，但仍未到觸發美菲聯防條約的門檻。 
  • 中國可能會對菲律賓民用船隻進行實彈射擊，以試探美國在美菲聯防條約中的底線。或者，中國可能像菲律賓船隻開火和扣留其船員，來阻擋菲律賓的補給任務。 
結論
  • 中國可能會利用新的灰色地帶戰術，來宣示其對第二托馬斯淺灘的主權，這意味著《美菲聯防條約》正在發揮作用。 
  • 然而，意外事件也可能會導致雙方誤判、事態升級，甚至引發武裝衝突。在第二托馬斯淺灘建立一個聯合前進作戰基地，也許是保持現狀的好方法。 
  • 美國可以宣布美菲聯防條約涵蓋第二托馬斯淺灘和其他爭議地區。 
Summary: 
The Beijing government increased its gray-zone aggression in the South China Sea against the Philippines by harassing Manila's resupply missions to the Second Thomas Shoal. If China continues its gray-zone aggression, the Philippines may activate the US-Phillippines Mutual Defense treaty, thus inviting the US military to intervene in the Second Thomas Shoal dispute. The PLA became more aggressive in the region recently because it has the capability and capacity to harass rival ships, supported by military outposts in some artificial islands nearby. The US may opt to deter Chinese gray-zone activities in the region, but that may escalate the US-China conflict. Further, despite a similar arrangement with Japan on the Senkaku Islands dispute, China's gray-zone activities did not dwindle. Therefore, the US will probably choose to provide the Philippines with military assistance and training while warning Beijing about the US-Philippines security treaty. 

Chinese Gray-Zone Tactics 
  • After Chinese bullying actions in the Philippines increased, the US government consistently accentuated the terms of the Mutual Defense Treaty, which included an attack on the Philippines Coast Guard operations. 
  • While the PLA has not attacked Philippines' military assets, the advertent or unintended gray zone aggression may cause the US or the Philippines to trigger the Mutual Defense Treaty, leading to war. 
  • If China perceives the US is overly distracted with assisting Ukraine and Israel simultaneously, it may escalate its gray-zone aggressions to test Washington's resolve and attack the Philippines' Sierra Madre at the Second Thomas Shoal. 
Potential Scenarios 
  • The current US-Phillippines alliance is the healthiest since its inception. Therefore, the US will remain committed to the Mutual Defense Treaty and may invoke it if China continues its aggressiveness. 
  • China will probably escalate its gray-zone activities but remain under the threshold of triggering the Mutual Defense Treaty. 
  • China may fire live rounds on the Philippines' civilian ships to test the US's mettle in the Mutual Defense Treaty. Alternatively, China may deter resupply missions by firing on Philippine vessels or detaining its crew members. 
Conclusion 
  • China may introduce new gray-zone tactics to assert its sovereignty over the Second Thomas Shoal, meaning the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty is functioning. 
  • However, accidents may lead to miscalculation, escalation, and potentially armed conflict. A good way to retain the status quo is to place a combined forward operating base at the Second Thomas Shoal. 
  • The US could declare the Mutual Defense Treaty covers the Second Thomas Shoal and other disputed areas. 
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