
摘要:
經濟議題是全球各國領導人的核心國家利益之一。因此,在我們逐漸進入多極化和國際秩序面臨挑戰的新時代時,我們必須了解經濟戰略的最佳做法和實際執行情況。
第1課:在效率與聯盟之間取得平衡
- 美國及其盟友協調對俄羅斯實施制裁,以限制其在2014年克里米亞的吞併和2022年入侵烏克蘭的侵略行為。雖然這個聯盟涵蓋了全球70%的GDP,但還是有一些新興市場沒有直接參與。
- 對俄羅斯的制裁旨在通過限制貿易和切斷俄羅斯與全球金融網絡路之聯繫,限制俄羅斯的戰鬥能力。目前,俄羅斯的經濟雖然岌岌可危但尚未崩潰,表示美國沒有達到其制裁目的。
- 由於對能源進口的盟友造成經濟擾動的風險,聯盟不得不有限控制俄羅斯能源的銷售,以維持聯盟凝聚力,但這一點反而削弱了美國主導的制裁功效。
第2課:經濟戰略必須攻守兼備
- 在經濟戰略中,大多數政策是偏向攻擊性。然而,烏克蘭在戰爭中也失去了其生產能力。因此,美國還必須向烏克蘭提供「防禦性」投資,以加強其基礎設施的彈性、網路安全、食品安全等。
- 烏克蘭還需要一個類似馬歇爾計劃的長期戰後重建計劃。
第3課:與私營部門協調
- 經濟戰在實施階段將涉及私人行為者。因此,政府必須與各種行業進行廣泛協調。
- 許多跨國公司從俄羅斯撤回其資本和業務,妨礙了俄羅斯有效開採資源的能力。
- 私營部門和烏克蘭安全機構之間的密切合作,成功促成了烏克蘭的網路防禦力量。然而,美國及其盟友對資助烏克蘭數位作戰沒有明確的指導方針。
Summary:
The economy is the core national interest of any world leader. Therefore, we must understand the best practices and real-world implementation of economic warfare as we enter a new era of multipolarity and challenges to the international order.
Lesson 1: Balancing between efficiency and alliance
Lesson 1: Balancing between efficiency and alliance
- The US and its allies coordinated sanctions against Russia for its aggression against Ukraine in the 2014 Crimean Annexation and the 2022 invasion. Although the coalition represents 70% of global GDP, some emerging markets did not participate directly.
- The sanctions on Russia are to constrain Russia's warfighting ability by restricting trade and severing Russia from the global financial network. The US falls short of its sanctions goal as Russia's economy still hangs on a thread but has not collapsed.
- Due to the risk of economic disruption on energy-importing allies, the sanctions regime included controlled sales of Russian energy to maintain alliance cohesion, which blunts US-led sanctions' efficacy.
Lesson 2: Economic warfare must have both offensive and defensive elements
- Most policies in economic warfare are offensive. However, Ukraine also lost its productive capability in the war. Therefore, the US must also provide "defensive" investments to Ukraine to strengthen its infrastructure resilience, cyber defense, food security, and other security aspects.
- Ukraine also requires a long-term post-war rebuilding program akin to the Marshall Plan.
Lesson 3: Coordination with the private sector
- Economic warfare will involve private actors during the implementation stage. Therefore, extensive coordination between the government and industries is necessary.
- Many multinational companies withdrew their capital and operations from Russia, impeding Russia's ability to extract resources effectively.
- Close cooperation between private sectors and the Ukrainian security agency contributed to Ukraine's successful cyber defense. However, the US and its allies did not have clear guidance on funding Ukraine's digital conflict.