作者/Author(s): Andriy Zagorodnyuk 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/23/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 防禦、安全、烏克蘭 

摘要:

自川普政府第二任期以來，歐洲官員一直在努力擬定有效的俄烏和平協議。他們深知普丁在達成目的前不會停手，同時又擔心美國會放棄對基輔的支持。因此，他們正積極透過措施為烏克蘭提供安全保障並促成雙邊停火。 
 

現行提案的前景與侷限 
  • 歐洲官員已透露幾種可能的措施，包括：
  1. ​​​​​​​在烏克蘭部署部分「安保部隊」以提升防禦能力 
  2. 加強對俄羅斯的制裁力度 
  3. 向烏克蘭提供更多武器裝備 
  4. 推動全面承擔烏克蘭防禦責任的理念 
  • ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​這些提案雖各有優勢，但在面對普丁的決絕與殘酷手段時，仍不足以確保烏克蘭的安全。 
  • 美歐雙方都質疑烏克蘭能否完全阻止俄羅斯的侵略，因為即便北約持續向烏克蘭供應武器，俄羅斯仍在部分地區取得一些進展。 
  • 然而，要削弱俄羅斯威脅，烏克蘭的目標不必是「全面勝利」，而是讓敵人無法實現戰略目標 。 
  • 更重要的是，烏克蘭在面對更強大的傳統軍力時，透過創新與使用更新、更廉價的科技裝備，創造了出色的戰果。
  • 因此，歐洲不應只聚焦在傳統軍事能力或書面安全保證，而是應該大幅投資烏克蘭國防產業，直接參與軍事製造合作，共同強化防空體系。 
 
Summary: 
European officials had been racing to devise a peace deal that could work for Ukraine since the start of the second Trump administration. They understood that Putin would not stop until he achieved his objectives, while fearing that the US would abandon its support for Kyiv. Consequently, they are taking measures to provide security guarantees to Ukraine and facilitate a ceasefire. 

The Prospects and Limitations of Current Proposals 
  • European officials had disclosed some possible measures, including: 
  1. Placing some European reassurance forces in Ukraine to bolster its defenses 
  2. Ramping up sanctions against Russia 
  3. Arming Ukraine with more weapons 
  4. Touting the idea of full commitment to Ukrainian defense 
  • ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​These proposals had their advantages, but are insufficient to guarantee Ukraine's security in the face of Putin's determination and ruthlessness. 
  • The US and Europe doubt that Ukraine could completely stop Russia's aggression because Russia made incremental gains despite NATO continuously supplying weapons to Ukraine. 
  • However, to neutralize the Russian threat, Ukraine only needs to incapacitate its enemy's ability to achieve its objectives, making it a more manageable goal.  
  • Furthermore, Ukraine had fared well against a stronger conventional force by innovating and adapting newer and cheaper technologies.  
  • Therefore, instead of focusing on conventional capabilities or a written security guarantee. Europe should consider investing heavily in Ukraine's defense industry, cooperating directly in military manufacturing, and collaborating in air defense.  
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