作者/Author(s): Thomas J. Shattuck and Benjamin Lewis 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy Research Institute 

日期/Date: 10/09/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、台灣、中共 


摘要：
台灣國防部自2017年9月以來，開始發布解放軍侵入台灣防空識別區（ADIZ）的即時資訊，並將這些行動劃分為五個階段，每個階段的動機各不相同。 
第一階段（2020年9月-2022年7月）：新型脅迫模式 
  • 解放軍入侵行動集中於台灣在南海的主權島嶼附近，但不一定會危及台灣。 
  • 行動規模較小，使用的飛機多為輕型飛機，但入侵次數和機型穩步增加。 
  • 這些行動消耗了台灣國防部的預算，飛行員和攔截機疲於奔命。國防部決定不再每次都攔截解放軍的行動，改為使用地面飛彈追蹤。 
  • 每當台灣或中國大陸發生重大政治事件時，侵襲行動就會大幅增加。 
第二階段（2022年8月-2023年3月）：轉折點 
  • 自裴洛西訪台後，解放軍的侵擾行動變得難以預測，行動開始集中於台灣海峽。 
  • 解放軍飛機越過了假想的戴維斯線，幾乎每天都有入侵事件。 
  • 解放軍開始在台灣周邊進行更大規模的聯合軍事演習，行動複雜度提升。 
  • 中國政府以裴洛西訪台為藉口，合理化其脅迫台灣的行動，政治事件與侵擾次數相關度不斷上升。 
第三階段（2023年4月-2023年11月）：擴大行動範圍 ​​​​​​​
  • 第三階段始於時任總統蔡英文在加州過境期間與美國眾議院議長會面。 
  • 北京將入侵範圍擴大到解放軍海軍，宣布將實施「封鎖行動」，允許中國海上執法船在台灣海峽攔截並登船檢查。 
  • 解放軍東部戰區司令部也在台灣周圍進行「聯合利劍」演習，測試其控制西太平洋空域和太空領域的能力。在行動期間，約有 130 架解放軍飛機和 150 艘船隻進入台灣的防空識別區。 
  • 自那隻橫，解放軍在台灣周邊的例行活動，及對台灣防空識別區的侵擾次數顯著增加。 
Summary: 
Taiwan's Ministry of Defense (MND) has published real-time information on PLA incursions into its ADIZ since September 2017. The incursions happened in five phases, with different motives during each phase. 
Phase 1 (September 2020-July 2022): The New Model of Coercion 
  • PLA's incursions happen near Taiwan's islands in the South China Sea but not necessarily endangering. 
  • The incursions happened at a small scale using smaller aircraft, but the number and type of aircraft changed steadily.
  • The incursions stretched Taiwan MND's budget and fatigued its pilots and interceptor planes. Consequently, the MND decided not to intercept every PLA sortie, opting to track them using ground-based missiles. 
  • Incursions drastically increased whenever there were significant political events in Taiwan or China. 
Phase Two (August 2022-March 2023): The Turning Point 
  • Since Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the PLA's incursion became unpredictable and centered in the Taiwan Strait.  
  • Since then, PLA aircraft have crossed the hypothetical Davis Line, and incursions happen almost daily. 
  • The PLA also started more large-scale joint exercises around Taiwan, along with increased operational complexity. 
  • The Beijing government rationalized its enhanced coercion on Taiwan using Pelosi's visit, linking the occurrence of political events to increased incursion. 
Phase Three (April 2023-November 2023): Expanding Coverage 
  • The third phase started with a significant political event: the then-Taiwan President Tsai Ing-Wen visited the US House Speaker during her stopover in California. 
  • Beijing expanded its incursion to include the PLA Navy and announced that it would conduct quarantine operations. The quarantine operation allows Chinese maritime law enforcement vessels to stop and board ships in the Taiwan Strait. 
  • The PLA Eastern Theater Command also conducted a Joint Sword exercise around Taiwan to test its ability to control the air and space domain in the Western Pacific. During the operation, around 130 PLA aircraft and 150 ships entered Taiwan's ADIZ. 
  • PLA's routine activities around Taiwan and incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ increased since then. 
 
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