作者/Author(s): Benjamin Jensen and Jose M. Macias III 

網站來源/Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies 

日期/Date: 11/8/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、俄烏衝突、談判 


摘要：
川普團隊已有結束俄烏戰爭的計劃。然而，在制定談判策略之前，美國必須評估戰爭終結後的真實情況。美國必須確保烏克蘭擁有足夠的實力與俄羅斯談判，並提出能威脅俄羅斯繼續衝突的恐怖後果。 
  • 任何結束衝突的談判策略，都必須從了解數十年來戰爭如何結束開始。
  1. 大多數戰爭的終結，並不代表暴力行動自此減少，通常也沒有正式的停戰協議，更不會以妥協、僵局或停火收場。在國與國之間的戰爭中，很少有一方能取得完全勝利並終止戰爭。 
  2. 烏克蘭可能面臨衝突的長期停頓，但無法徹底解決衝突。因此，美國必須確保烏克蘭擁有自我防衛的手段，有效嚇阻潛在的衝突。 
  • 為加速結束這場衝突，美國需要評估和解的成本和收益。
  1. ​​​​​​​美國和烏克蘭在計算和解的成本時，必須考慮政治和心理因素，這會影響討價還價的籌碼大小。
  2. 烏克蘭和俄羅斯之間的不同期望，也會限制雙方政府的談判空間。
  • ​​​​​​​理解最終局勢：
  1. ​​​​​​​美國必須了解談判的關鍵因素，包括戰爭疲勞、國內政治及情報評估，才能掌握雙方對自身談判立場的認知。 
  2. 如果美國減少對烏克蘭的支持，可能會加強俄羅斯的談判地位，和談將變得更加複雜。 
  3. 新任政府有意結束戰爭的立場十分正確，但必須讓烏克蘭在談判中保持優勢地位。 

Summary: 
The Trump team already has plans to end the Russo-Ukraine War. However, the US must evaluate the reality of war termination before formulating negotiation strategies. The US must ensure Ukraine has the strength to bargain with Russia and threaten Russia with the possible consequences of continuing the conflict.  
  • Any negotiation strategy to end the conflict must begin with understanding how wars have terminated in recent decades. 
  1. Most war terminations do not result in lower levels of violence. They do not have a formal agreement on conflict termination or end in a compromise, stalemate, or ceasefire. In interstate wars, they rarely end in a complete victory for one side. 
  2. It means a possible long pause of the conflict for Ukraine without resolving it decisively. Therefore, the US must ensure Ukraine has the means for self-defense and deter future conflicts. 
  • To hasten the end of the conflict, the US must assess the cost and benefits of conflict settlement. 
  1. The US and Ukraine must account for the political and psychological factors when calculating the cost of conflict settlements because it will affect the bargaining scope. 
  2. Different expectations between Ukraine and Russia will also constrain the bargaining space for both governments. 
  • Understanding the end game: 
  1. The US must understand the key factors of negotiation, which are war weariness, domestic politics, and intelligence estimates, to know how each side perceives their negotiation position. 
  2. If the US decreases support for Ukraine, it may strengthen Russia's negotiation position and complicate peace talks. 
  3. The incoming administration is right in ending the war, but must let Ukraine enter negotiation from the position of strength. 
 
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