作者/Author(s): Jack Watling 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/21/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、俄烏、談判 


穩固前線的必要性 
  • 烏克蘭明白，為了在談判時擁有強大的籌碼，他們必須建立穩固且穩定的前線。它也清楚西方對俄烏衝突的支持最終會停下，烏克蘭甚至可能在西方失去耐心後被迫與俄羅斯進行談判。如果出現這種情況，烏國將在武力威脅下不得不向俄羅斯讓出部分主權。
  • 除了穩定前線外，烏克蘭可奪取部分俄羅斯領土，守下據點，甚至在可能的情況下擴大其佔據地區，以增加談判籌碼。八月的突襲就是一次很好的示範。
  • 烏克蘭還必須確保俄羅斯撤出札波羅熱核電站，這對烏克蘭的能源基礎設施至關重要。 
  • 持續對俄羅斯的經濟制裁，也可以作為烏克蘭另一個有力的籌碼，有效削弱俄羅斯的作戰能力並懲罰其行為。 
  • 烏克蘭和俄羅斯有不同的訴求，停火是最可能的結果。無論結果如何，烏克蘭在同意任何安排之前都需要相應的安全保證。
穿靴子的外交官 
  • 烏克蘭要求加入北約的想法非常不切實際，但澤倫斯基的論述正確—堅定的安全保障對長遠和平至關重要。
  • 由於資源有限且優先事項不同，美國可能無法為烏克蘭提供新的長期安全保障，而是希望烏克蘭的歐洲鄰國能夠承擔更多安全責任。 
  • 在俄烏停火後，在烏克蘭部署一個自願且獲美國支持的聯盟非常重要。 
  • 一個有意向並獲得美國支持的聯盟在停火後部署到烏克蘭是必要的。歐洲國家必須加強國防工業基礎，集結有意的成員，以展現嚇阻俄羅斯再次侵略的能力和決心。 
Summary: 
The Necessity of a Strong and Stable Frontline 
  • Ukraine understands the need for a robust and stabilized front to have a strong bargaining position with Russia. It also comprehends that Western support for its war will stop at some point and even force it to the negotiation table with Russia once its patience runs off. If this scenario happens, Ukraine will need to surrender its sovereignty to Russia at gunpoint. 
  • Apart from stabilizing the frontline, Ukraine could increase its bargaining chips by seizing part of Russian territory, defending the position, and expanding its foothold if possible, as in its surprise attack in August. 
  • Ukraine must also ensure Russia withdraws from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant because it is critical to its energy infrastructure. 
  • The continuation of economic sanctions on Russia could provide Ukraine with another substantial leverage to reduce Russia's warfighting ability and punish it. 
  • Ukraine and Russia have different demands, and a ceasefire is the most likely outcome. Regardless of the results, Ukraine needs considerable security guarantees before it can agree to any arrangements. 
Diplomats in Boots
  • Ukraine's demand for NATO membership is unrealistic, but Zelensky is correct that unwavering security guarantees are necessary for enduring peace. 
  • Due to limited resources and different priorities, the US may not provide Ukraine with new long-term security guarantees and hopes that Ukraine's European neighbors could shoulder the security burden. 
  • A coalition of the willing and supported by the US who could deploy to Ukraine after a ceasefire is necessary. Therefore, European countries must enhance their defense industrial bases and assemble willing members to show the ability and determination to deter Russian aggression. 
 
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